South African Inflation Ticks Up to 4.5% in September as Transport Costs Surge

South Africa’s annual consumer price inflation rose slightly to 4.5% in September from 4.4% in August, driven mainly by sharply higher transport costs.

Statistics South Africa released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday. Transport contributed 1.5 percentage points to the overall inflation figure.

Despite the increase, the headline rate came in lower than many analysts had expected. Most forecasts had pointed to a rise of around 4.6% to 4.7% year on year.

Transport costs jumped 10.8% year on year. Between January and September, the price of petrol rose by R6.13 per litre, while 500ppm diesel surged by R10.66 after the conflict in the Middle East pushed global oil prices higher.

There was better news in other categories. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation increased by just 1.2% year on year and fell 0.1% month on month.

Health costs rose 3.2% year on year, while insurance and financial services increased by 5.4%. Housing and utilities climbed 5.2% and contributed 1.3 percentage points to overall CPI. Rental inflation, however, slowed from 4.1% to 3.9% year on year.

Johann Els, senior economist at PSG, said there was still little evidence of second-round inflationary pressure.

“Apart from the direct impact of higher petrol prices, there have been some increases in transport costs, including taxis and public transport, but little evidence of broader price pressures elsewhere. This will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank,” Els said.

He expects inflation to rise slightly above 5% in October and November, before base effects help bring it down again from around April next year. By the second half of 2027, he believes inflation could return to around 3% or lower, depending largely on the extent of any decline in oil and petrol prices.

https://iol.co.za/business/economy/2026-10-21-south-african-inflation-ticks-up-to-45-in-september-as-transport-costs-explode-but-there-is-good-news/

IOL – South African inflation ticks up to 4.5% in September as transport costs explode, but there is good news (Jason Woosey)

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