Contrary to predictions by political cynics that the off-cycle gubernatorial election in Osun State would turn bloody, the peaceful conduct of the poll has sent a clear message that the doomsday prediction was simply out of place. Before the poll was conducted on August 15, 2026, violence had taken place in some parts of the state, leading to the killing of no fewer than 30 persons, fueling fears that the election may record more casualties.
The high-stakes theatre of political manoeuvring had thickened the atmosphere of instability. Many saw the off-cycle election as a critical litmus test for both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the fractured opposition parties, comprising the Action Party (AP), African Democratic Party (ADC), and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). At the end of the poll, which saw over one million voters exercise their civic rights, the incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke, was declared the winner with 511,067 votes. He defeated APC’s Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes, to secure a comeback.
There is no doubt that the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC) showed commendable institutional resilience in adhering to the rules and stood by its promise to deliver a transparent poll. The Adeleke administration had, before the poll, accused the APC-led central government of plotting to deploy massive security personnel to swing victory against the governor’s re-election. On the eve of the poll, the war of words between the AP and APC was not yet over, and it worsened with verbal accusations among contesting candidates, drawing national and global attention.
Beyond the democratic celebration of a peaceful poll lies a complex grid of INEC’s deep commitment to transparency in conducting the poll. Added to this, the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration ensured that nothing was left to chance to ensure the doomsday prediction never came true. Devoid of the dynamics that would have made the off-cycle poll draped in violence, the poll’s outcome reveals certain truths about voter behaviour, structural dynamics, and the evolving mechanics of Nigeria’s democracy.
Adeleke’s ability to run his campaign on a viable platform of AP, even when he won his governorship election in 2022 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), now factionalised, is reflective of his political ingenuity. Many expected he would join one of the PDP factions, but the Osun State governor defected to a relatively minor party and avoided legal hurdles that could throw his victory in legal fireworks. Adeleke’s victory in the off-cycle election clearly demonstrates that grassroots support and individual branding can eclipse party mechanisms and deliver political victory.
Most importantly, deploying his nephew and music icon, Davido, to build emotional contacts with the grassroots helped galvanise the electorate and ensured Adeleke’s triumph. The outcome reflects the power of a personalised brand that commands strong attention from voters willing to leave no stone unturned to ensure their votes count. Voters’ political consciousness considerably helped to protect the integrity of the votes as the electorate were ready to confront anti-democratic forces plotting to compromise the ballot.
In achieving transparency in the recently concluded Osun off-cycle poll, the Federal Government’s non-interference proved crucial, as Tinubu’s assurance that the Prof Joash Amupitan-led electoral body was not under any form of compulsion to be partisan was strictly adhered to. To prove he was determined to keep his words. Tinubu was the first to congratulate Adeleke over his electoral victory. This action by the president aligns with the administration’s policy of upholding the sanctity of the ballot under democracy rather than resorting to subterranean manipulation to suppress the popular will of the people.
It is commendable that the ballot counting in the off-cycle election was concluded successfully without the hostilities of the pre-election period. Tinubu’s notable stand for transparency, demonstrated through his neutrality and institutional reliance of the electoral body, was undeniable. Protecting the integrity of elections through the effective use of electoral technologies, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the IReV portal, made it possible to establish a clean democratic baseline acceptable to all parties, and free from federal coercion.
One reality of the off-cycle poll was that technology, when effectively deployed, could engender electoral transparency and ensure well-protected votes would count. BVAS functioned efficiently across most polling units, making mass ballot-box stuffing nearly impossible. Although vote-buying incidents were reported, electoral observers noted that localised vote-buying occurred among parties. The deployment of electoral technologies may have secured custody of the ballot, but vigilance from voters and critical stakeholders must never waver in ensuring the sanctity of the ballot. We call on Nigerians to unite against electoral malpractices and ensure hitch-free elections next year to deepen democracy for good governance.
