Most parts of Kenya are expected to experience generally dry
conditions this week, the Kenya Meteorological Department has said.
In its weather forecast for August 18 to 24, the department
said a few counties could receive rainfall during the period.
They include Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu,
Kisii, Lamu, Kericho, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
The Met also forecast intermittent cool and cloudy
conditions in parts of Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a,
Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Nakuru, Machakos, Kajiado and
Marsabit counties.
Daytime temperatures of more than 30°C are expected in much
of Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana.
Similar temperatures are expected in parts of Kitui,
Bungoma, Busia and Kakamega counties.
Meanwhile, some areas are expected to experience cold
nights, with minimum average temperatures falling below 10°C.
The affected areas include parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi,
Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado and
Trans Nzoia counties.
The department advised residents to take note of the varying
weather conditions expected across the country during the week.
On August 2, the Kenya Meteorological Department indicated that the country may experience above‑normal rainfall from October as a strong El Niño event develops, raising the risk of wetter conditions extending into early 2027.
KMD has pointed out that there is an 81 per cent probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into the first months of 2027.
Narok County Director of Meteorological Services Stanley Kinyua said the country is expected to transition from below‑normal rainfall in the coming weeks to wetter‑than‑average conditions during the October-November-December short rains season.
Kinyua cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the amount of rainfall Kenya will receive.
He explained that rainfall will largely be influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon caused by differences in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean.
Depending on whether the IOD is positive or negative, it can either enhance or suppress the effects of El Niño over East Africa.
Speaking during a meeting on an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response to coordinate Narok County’s response to the forecast moderate-to-strong El Niño rains expected later this year, the official flagged flood and landslide hotspot areas of the devolved unit as Narok town, Mosiro, Ewaso Ngiro, Kilgoris and Nkareta.
KMD projects below‑average rainfall across much of western Kenya during the August-September-October period.
However, conditions are expected to change from October, with most parts of the country likely to receive above‑average rainfall through November.
Kinyua cautioned that El Niño is not rainfall itself but a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every two to seven years and influences weather globally.
El Niño has been linked to several major flooding events in Kenya. The country experienced one of its worst episodes in 1997-1998, when widespread floods claimed lives, displaced thousands, and destroyed infrastructure.
