The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Kenya and several other oil-importing African economies face renewed pressure from rising global oil prices, a development that could translate into higher fuel and food costs in the coming months.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF noted that countries with limited exposure to the global technology boom but heavily reliant on imported energy would bear the brunt of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East through higher inflation and slower economic growth.
The lender singled out oil-importing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa as among those most vulnerable to the latest energy price shocks, even as growth across the region is projected to remain broadly stable at 4.3 per cent in 2026.
“Uncertainty remains high, and the impacts of the war could linger,” the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organisation said in a joint statement after a high-level meeting on the economic effects of the conflict.
Treasury CS John Mbadi with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, at IMF Headquarters on April 14, during the 2026 Spring Meetings.
Photo
Treasury
The warning comes just days before the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announces its monthly fuel price review on July 14, a move closely watched by Kenyan motorists and businesses amid renewed volatility in global oil markets.
Global crude prices have climbed by about 5 per cent in recent weeks following renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, with Brent crude, the benchmark used to price Kenya’s petroleum imports, rising above Ksh9,823 (USD76) a barrel, its highest level since June 23.
The latest increase followed U.S. military strikes on Iran after Washington accused Tehran of orchestrating attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping lane that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies.
The IMF said that although energy prices have eased from the peaks witnessed earlier this year, they remain significantly above pre-war levels, warning that any escalation of the conflict could further disrupt global supply chains, fuel inflation and tighten financial conditions.
According to the fund, global headline inflation is expected to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027, largely driven by elevated energy and food prices.
The warning comes a day after the IMF, the World Bank Group, and the World Trade Organisation held a high-level meeting to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, saying uncertainty remains high despite a recent decline in fuel and fertiliser prices.
The three institutions urged governments and the international community to continue supporting energy and food security, protect global trade routes and strengthen the resilience of vulnerable economies as the conflict continues to weigh on global markets.
For Kenya, any sustained increase in international crude prices is likely to influence the upcoming EPRA pricing cycle, with pump prices largely determined by global petroleum costs and exchange rate movements.
In its last fuel price review announced on June 14, EPRA set the maximum retail price of Super Petrol in Nairobi at Ksh214.03 per litre, Diesel at Ksh222.86 per litre and Kerosene at Ksh191.38 per litre.
A petrol tanker transporting fuel along Thika Super Highway, November 13, 2019.
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