Manchester City could be stripped of enough points to drop them into the Championship if a football finance expert’s punishment projection proves accurate, a verdict that would cast a shadow over Premier League titles won by Ghanaian players during the period under investigation.
Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire warned on Monday that a points deduction of between 40 and 60 points would be “logical” if City are found guilty across multiple charges in their long-running Financial Fair Play (FPP) case. City and the Premier League remain in limbo, awaiting the outcome of proceedings concerning 115 alleged financial violations spanning 2009 to 2018. City has denied all accusations and is said to be optimistic about exoneration.
The independent three-member commission that heard the case completed its 12-week hearing in December 2024, but sources with knowledge of the process say the case could go on for at least another year, with even those at the top of the Premier League uncertain when the panel will deliver its outcome.
Maguire, speaking on The Overlap, drew a direct line from previous Premier League sanctions to the scale of what City could face. Everton received a six-point deduction and Nottingham Forest a four-point deduction for single offences covering three-year periods. The charges against City span nine years. “I think you have to add a zero to what we have seen in terms of Forest and Everton,” Maguire said, arriving at his 40 to 60-point range.
City currently sit second in the Premier League table. A 60-point deduction applied today would place them on minus four points, effectively condemning them to Championship football next season without a ball being kicked in a relegation match.
Beyond a points deduction, Maguire raised the spectre of corporate fraud findings that could force a complete boardroom restructure. He drew a parallel with Juventus in Italy’s Serie A, whose board resigned after wage manipulation was proven. “There is an honesty issue here that would mean if Manchester City are found guilty, the board has to go and that could be a complete restructure of the club,” he said.
The charges cover the period between 2009 and 2018, during which City won Premier League titles in 2012, 2014 and 2018. City have spent approximately £25 million on legal costs in the case, with the Premier League’s bill running to a similar figure.
Former Liverpool managing director Christian Purslow, who also held senior roles at Chelsea and Aston Villa, said even a guilty verdict would not end the matter quickly, warning that City would almost certainly appeal, potentially extending proceedings by another three to twelve months and pushing any final sanction further down the road. He urged the Premier League to resist any out-of-court settlement, calling such a move a “terrible mistake” that would undermine the integrity of the entire process.
City maintain that their evidence is strong and that they expect full exoneration. The independent panel has given no indication of when its written decision will be released.
