Ghana’s public debt trajectory showed further signs of stabilization in November 2025, offering cautious optimism to investors and the business community after years of fiscal strain.
Latest figures from the Bank of Ghana put the country’s total public debt stock at GH¢644.6 billion as at November 2025, translating into a debt-to-GDP ratio of 45.5 percent. This marks a notable improvement in debt sustainability metrics and reflects a gradual tightening of fiscal conditions.
According to the Bank of Ghana’s Summary of Economic and Financial Data for the period ending January 2026, the debt stock declined by about GH¢40 billion between September and November 2025, underscoring the impact of reduced borrowing and improved cash management.
In dollar terms, total public debt stood at US$57.2 billion in November, down from US$57.8 billion in October, though still above the US$55.1 billion recorded in September. The fluctuations largely reflect valuation effects driven by exchange rate movements rather than fresh borrowing.
The data shows that Ghana’s public debt had dipped to GH¢630.2 billion in October 2025, before edging up slightly in November, suggesting that while pressures have eased, the debt path remains sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
A closer look at the composition of the debt points to broad-based moderation. External debt fell to US$29.3 billion (GH¢330.2 billion) in November, equivalent to 23.3 percent of GDP, down from US$29.5 billion (GH¢367.0 billion) in September.
Domestic debt also declined to GH¢314.5 billion, representing 22.2 percent of GDP, compared with GH¢317.6 billion two months earlier.
For businesses, this matters. A lighter domestic debt burden reduces the government’s reliance on local borrowing, easing the long-standing “crowding out” effect and potentially freeing up more credit for the private sector.
Behind the stabilising debt numbers is a clear push on revenue mobilisation. By November 2025, total revenue and grants reached 13.4 percent of GDP, with domestic revenue accounting for an overwhelming 13.3 percent. Grants contributed a marginal 0.1 percent, highlighting a decisive shift away from aid dependence.
Tax revenue alone stood at 10.8 percent of GDP, reinforcing the government’s growing reliance on internal collections. For the business community, the signal is unmistakable: tax compliance, enforcement, and policy reforms will remain firmly at the centre of fiscal strategy.
Equally telling is the discipline on the spending side. Total government expenditure was contained at 13.9 percent of GDP in November 2025, a sharp pullback from the 16.6 percent recorded in November 2024.
That restraint, however, comes with trade-offs. Capital expenditure remained subdued at just 0.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a cautious approach to infrastructure spending as authorities prioritise stabilisation over expansion.
Crucially, the government posted a primary surplus of 1.9 percent of GDP on a cash basis—a key marker of its ability to service debt without resorting to additional borrowing.
Running a primary surplus while narrowing the overall cash deficit to –1.4 percent of GDP, from –5.2 percent a year earlier, signals a decisive shift in fiscal management. Combined with inflation easing to 5.4 percent and the Monetary Policy Rate cut to 18.0 percent by December 2025, the macroeconomic environment is clearly cooling in favour of growth.
For businesses, the message is nuanced but encouraging. While lean capital spending may limit short-term public-sector opportunities, the payoff is greater fiscal stability, lower interest rates, and a more predictable operating environment—conditions that are far more supportive of long-term private investment.
In short, Ghana’s government is tightening its belt. If sustained, this discipline could mark a turning point from crisis management to durable economic recovery.
