Arsenal have gone out at this stage of the Champions League a record nine times since the tournament was restructured, Porto eight, so something has got to give over these two matches.
The Gunners, genuine title contenders in England for the second season in a row, are 2/13 with LiveScore Bet to qualify for the quarter-finals.
But they will be wary of a Porto side who may be off the pace at the top of the Primeira Liga but are packed with European pedigree.
Team news
Sergio Conceicao will field his usual 4-2-3-1 formation with nine-goal Brazilian Evanilson leading the line.
Nigeria international left-back Zaidu Sanusi was stretchered off in Saturday’s 2-0 win over Estrela. Wendell will replace him. Back-up striker Mehdi Taremi is a doubt.
Oleksandr Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus could be in the frame for Arsenal after injuries.
The stats
Porto have been eliminated in seven of their eight Champions League knockout ties against English opposition.
Porto are unbeaten at home in their last 10 matches, winning nine. They have kept clean sheets in the last five of those.
Arsenal have scored more first-half goals – 12 – than any other side in this season’s competition.
No player has been involved in more Champions League goals this season than Bukayo Sako (3 goals, 4 assists).
Arsenal have won five matches in a row and have scored 11 goals in their last two Premier League away games.
Prediction
The goals are flowing at Arsenal and expect the chances to pile up for Mikel Arteta’s men at the Estadio do Dragao.
The Gunners racked up 16 attempts in Saturday’s 5-0 romp at Burnley, a week after they amassed 25 in a stunning 6-0 win at West Ham.
Porto will be a sterner examination of Arsenal’s attacking instincts than either of those two opponents, but there is still so much to admire about Arteta’s men going forward and the options they have.
Saka gets most of the headlines – his record in Europe this season is exceptional – but Martin Odegaard is averaging 2.2 shots per game domestically and only Gabriel Jesus fired off more shots on target than the Norwegian for Arsenal in the group stage.
Arsenal ought to have enough to win this first-leg tie but are arguably too short. Porto are no mugs.
If there are goals, however, then Odegaard, who will find holes in and around the box to try his luck, is a decent bet to pocket one.
