EIU Predicts Nana 2020 Victory

EIU predicts victory for Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo

The President, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, is coasting to victory in next year’s elections, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) – the world-acclaimed source of global socio-economic trends – has forecast in its latest report.

In the forecast released last week, the EIU stated that the former President (John Mahama) would suffer another electoral defeat because most electorate associate him with the economic malaise the country encountered during his tenure and wonder how another tenure would be any different.

“It will be difficult for the NDC under Mr. Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong. We, therefore, expect Mr. Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election in 2020,”the EIU summed up the forecast.

Doubtful Catch

The EIU, however, noted that “if the NDC can present a coherent opposition and hold the NPP to account on unfulfilled campaign promises –particularly on job creation and industrialization, where progress has been generally slow and success patchy – the election could be closely contested.”

Unchanged Prediction

The NPP and the opposition NDC, the EIU observed, are both gearing up for next year’s polls and tension will, of course, ramp up as the country inches towards the period.

“Our forecast that the 2020 polls are for the NPP to lose remains unchanged, reflecting the fact that the party has presided over an economic upswing since 2017,” adding  that the NPP’s upswing is in sharp contrast with the decline witnessed under the NDC.

NPP Campaign

Indeed, it was this downward trend of the economy under the John Mahama’s watch which constituted the bottom line of the NPP campaign.

The economic alternatives the NPP put out to Ghanaians especially undecided voters with prominent economist Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia appeared to have won the unprecedented 1 million voters.

Moving swiftly to implement the free SHS which the NDC described as a campaign gimmick was the last nail on the coffin of the main opposition party in the run-up to the 2017 polls, their refrain of ‘the free SHS is unfeasible’ falling flat on its face.

New Regions

The creation of new regions and municipalities are two major factors which the NPP campaign machinery will unleash to the interest of the party.

Some chiefs in the newly created regions in their excitements pledged support for the President as a show of gratitude for making their elusive dreams of new administrative units come true.

Research

So humiliating was the NDC defeat that the party’s leadership decided after a palpable reflection to commission a study into the causes and make recommendations: the results exposed major fault lines; one of them being a weak campaign message of the party. The applicable campaign message was likened, according to the Prof. Kwesi Botchwey Report, to a movie, with John Mahama being the star.

EIU Position

Regardless of the outcome of the Kwesi Botchwey research, the EIU believes that “the NDC’s failure was down to the economic deterioration it oversaw, which continues to haunt its chances of recapturing power in 2020.”

The EIU observed that the party “has taken steps to revitalize its ranks and strengthen cohesion,”the impact of this is yet to be seen, however.

Parliamentary Polls

The EIU after noting the outcome of the recent NDC parliamentary primaries – the features of which were the inability of nine incumbent MPs to make it and the coming on board of fresh persons amidst threats of some to go independent – offers a good chance for the NDC to mend its fences ahead of next year’s polls.

The race in the NPP scheduled for September end is heating up the EIU, a process which it recalled is usually characterized by infighting especially since the incumbency factor raises the stakes even higher. Unlike the NDC which may have enough time to mend the broken fences occasioned by the acrimony of the primaries, the NPP on the other could suffer time constraints.

Earlier Boost

Coming against the backdrop of Transparency International’s recent survey showing many more Ghanaians trusting President Akufo-Addo more than former President John Dramani Mahama in the fight against corruption could be an icing on the cake for the ruling party.

By A.R. Gomda

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