Americans expecting economic trouble and political conflict in 2023

“Coming off several challenging years, Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas,” wrote Megan Brenan, a research consultant for Gallup.

Economic challenges are expected to persist in the eyes of Americans, with nearly eight in 10 predicting higher taxes and a growing budget deficit. About 65% expect prices to rise at a high rate and 63% are bracing for a falling stock market. Respondents were almost split on whether they expect unemployment to rise, with about 53% saying they do.

In the political realm, an overwhelming ratio of people predict another discordant year, with 90% expecting 2023 to be rife with political conflict. This was the highest rate in agreement across any question.

Seventy-three percent are predicting China’s power to decline while 63% believe the same is true for the United States. Meanwhile 64% expect Russia’s power to increase. All in all, 85% said 2023 will be a “troubled” year with international turmoil abound.

Democrats are considered slightly more optimistic about the prospects for the year, Brenan said. This aligns with historical trends where people who identify with the party of the sitting president tend to have more optimism about the state of the economy, politics and foreign affairs.

“Majorities of Democrats foresee five positive developments in 2023. These include full or increasing employment (69%), a reasonable rise in prices (53%), a rising stock market (53%), an increase in U.S. power (56%) and a decrease in Russian power (79%),” the report said.

However Democrats were less likely to predict political cooperation, with only 13% answering as such. There was not a category in which Republicans responded positively at a higher rate than Democrats or Independents.

Data for the poll came from 1,803 people surveyed between Dec. 5 and 19.