World Cup Round of 16 predictions: Who will win quarterfinal berths in knockout round at Qatar 2022

The World Cup group stage is the land of upsets, but the knockout stage is where the best teams in the world assert their dominance.

With just 16 teams remaining by the start of knockout play on December 3, this is where heroes are truly made, and where champions are crowned.

Defending champions France are alive and ready to protect their crown, while 2018 semifinalists England are also through.

So far, there are six confirmed matchups for the Round of 16. As the games become set, we’ll add and update the predictions for each win-or-go-home game.

MORE: World Cup predictions, odds, best bets for all of today’s matches

Reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If a match goes to extra-time or penalties, the winning bet is a moneyline draw. The rest of play in extra time and penalties does not factor in.

Netherlands vs USA prediction, odds

The United States advanced to the Round of 16 thanks to Christian Pulisic’s winner against Iran, and now they match up against the No. 8 team in the world in the Netherlands.

The Dutch are on an 18-match unbeaten run, spanning the entirety of Louis van Gaal’s current stint as manager, and they pushed through Group A which featured a disappointing showing by hosts Qatar.

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Netherlands vs. USA odds

Netherlands vs. USA prediction

• Prediction: Netherlands 1-1 USA (Netherlands advance via penalties)

The United States have advanced to the quarterfinals of a World Cup just once, back in 2002, beating Mexico to get there. Therefore, they have never beaten a non-CONCACAF opponent in the knockout stage of the World Cup.

The U.S. have not conceded a goal from open play thus far in the tournament, and the Netherlands looked shaky against both Senegal and Ecuador, who used high bursts of energy to keep the Dutch on their heels. However, young Cody Gakpo stepped up with three goals in the group stage to help offset Memphis Depay’s lack of fitness.

Avoiding a tournament favorite like France, Spain, Argentina, or Brazil is big for the USMNT, and they should put up a fight in this one, maybe even earning a draw and sending it to penalties. Ultimately, however, the experience on the side of the Dutch will see them narrowly prevail.

Cody Gakpo received 13 line-breaking passes vs. Qatar, the most recorded by a Dutch player at the World Cup 🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/pZFjDSNBkX

— PFF FC (@PFF_FC) November 30, 2022

Argentina vs Australia

Australia upset Denmark 1-0 to see their way into the knockout stage for just the second time in their nation’s history. The Socceroos put forth a comprehensive performance to lock down a disappointing Danish side that fell well short of expectations.

Argentina, meanwhile, made it tough on themselves after the shock opening day defeat to Saudi Arabia, but recovered to take care of Mexico and Poland and reestablish themselves as tournament giants.

Argentina vs. Australia odds

Argentina vs. Australia prediction

• Prediction: Argentina 3-0 Australia

While Australia will consider themselves plucky underdogs capable of springing an upset, they were soundly beaten by France in the group stage and are unlikely to find a goal here against a very defensively sound Albiceleste side.

Meanwhile, Argentina scored two against a bunkered Poland in the group stage and could have had more, so expecting them to thwack Australia here is a fair play. The Aussies can be proud of their showing this tournament no matter the result here, while anything short of a resounding victory for Argentina will mean they have fallen short of expectations.

England vs Senegal prediction, odds

The Three Lions weren’t perfect, but they reigned supreme among a gritty collection of Group B teams. Their group supremacy sees them match up against Group A runners-up Senegal, who took down Ecuador in a winner-take-all match to clinch their spot in the knockouts.

England vs. Senegal odds

England vs. Senegal prediction

• Prediction: England 2-0 Senegal

While 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane has yet to truly arrive in this year’s tournament, this England team has too much firepower for Senegal to keep up with. The Three Lions had plenty of critics after the 0-0 draw with the United States, but on the whole through group stage play, their combination of attacking play and defensive structure makes them true tournament contenders.

Senegal were impressive against a plucky Ecuador side, but their inability to finish a host of chances and occasional leakiness at the back will see them fall in the Round of 16.

France vs Poland prediction, odds

France may have fallen to Tunisia in their Group D finale, but that came after they had essentially locked up the group’s top spot and could afford to sit nearly all their starters. Overall, the defending champions proved they can challenge for a repeat, with nobody securing two consecutive World Cup titles since 1962.

For Poland, they back their way into the knockout stage in meek fashion, falling 2-0 to Argentina and lucky to advance on goal differential as Mexico came up just inches short against Saudi Arabia.

France vs. Poland odds

France vs. Poland prediction

• Prediction: France 2-0 Poland

Poland showed utterly zero desire to score goals all throughout the group stage, as even their 2-0 victory over Saudi Arabia felt nervy. Against Argentina in the group stage finale, they were putrid, battered and bruised throughout the 90 minutes and were pathetically reduced to protecting their goal differential late. Even doing that, they barely kept Argentina off the board.

There’s zero evidence from any of the three group stage matches that Poland can compete with France, even after Les Bleus fell to Tunisia with their B-team on the field. With France’s stars back in action, the champs should advance comfortably.

Japan vs. Croatia prediction, odds

Japan brushed aside their mind-boggling defeat to Costa Rica as they stunned Spain and topped Group E, with Germany crashing out. The Samurai Blue defeated both Germany and Spain in come-from-behind fashion, turning 1-0 halftime deficits into 2-1 victories on both occasions.

Croatia, meanwhile, sputtered through Group F play but advanced as runners-up behind surprise winners Morocco, with Belgium stunningly bowing out of the group stage.

Japan vs. Croatia odds

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

A reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If the match requires a winner and goes to extra-time or penalties, a moneyline bet of a regulation draw is successful and the rest of play does not factor in.

Japan vs. Croatia prediction

• Prediction: Japan 2-0 Croatia

I’m all aboard the Japan bandwagon, and consequently off the Croatia train. The way Croatia were battered by Belgium, extremely lucky not to concede and crash out, was appalling.

While Japan must be better in the first half, having chased the ball around the pitch endlessly in all three games, they have the talent to stun big European sides, as they’ve proven against both Germany and Spain. The belief in this Japan team is high, and it’s hard to see them falling short here against a Croatia team that’s been disappointing in both games against opponents not named Canada.

Morocco vs. Spain prediction, odds

Imagine you’re Morocco right now. You’ve worked extremely hard to not only qualify for the knockout stage, but top the group ahead of both Croatia and Belgium. You’re celebrating amidst a joyous scene. And you’re rewarded with…Spain.

Thanks to the Group E flukiness that sent Japan to the top and Spain into second, Morocco will now have a brutal matchup as they look to emulate what the Samurai Blue did and shock the European powers. It will be a tough ask, as we’ve seen Spain dominate large stretches of games, especially in the opener against Costa Rica where they won by a huge 7-0 scoreline.

Morocco vs. Spain odds

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

A reminder: All moneyline bets in soccer are for regulation only, regardless of competition. If the match requires a winner and goes to extra-time or penalties, a moneyline bet of a regulation draw is successful and the rest of play does not factor in.

Morocco vs. Spain prediction

• Prediction: Morocco 1-1 Spain (Morocco advance via penalties)

I was very doubtful of Spain coming into the tournament, and while the big win over Costa Rica helped them backdoor into the knockout stage, we saw more against Germany and Japan of what I thought we’d see from Spain. This is an extremely young and inexperienced side that is mistake-prone, and they don’t finish enough of their chances to put teams away.

Morocco proved against Croatia in their group stage opener that they can hang with a team while giving away large amounts of possession, as they’ll have to do against Spain. Croatia completed 551 passes on 65 percent possession in that match, but managed just five shots worth 0.52 xG. In their 2-0 win over Belgium, it was a similar story, as they saw the Red Devils put together 577 passes for 67 percent possession, but just 10 shots worth 0.96 xG.

Give me this game going to a penalty shootout, and from there, who knows what will happen.