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For much of this season it appeared somewhat inevitable that Manchester City would retain the Premier League title. At one point, their lead over Liverpool was at 14 points.
However, City dropped points here and there and Liverpool went on an impressive streak, taking all three points in 14 of their last 16 league games. And that made for a title race down the stretch.
Man City currently have a four-point edge with two matches remaining, while also adding to their goal difference should the two teams finished tied atop the standings (+72 vs. +65). That gives Pep Guardiola’s defending champions additional breathing room for the stretch run.
Time is running out for Liverpool, who need Man City to drop points in its final match for a shot at overtaking them. Below is the complete picture of the run-in for both clubs, and an explanation of the scenario should they finish the season even on points at the top of the table, which is still a possibility.
With a game in hand, FiveThirtyEight gives Man City an 93 percent chance of retaining its title, while Liverpool are projected at only 7 percent to win it. The table snapshot below is updated as of matches on Saturday, May 14.
| Place | Team | Points | Games | Goals | Goal Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Manchester City | 90 | 37 | 96 | +72 |
| 2. | Liverpool | 86 | 36 | 89 | +65 |
| 3. | Chelsea | 70 | 36 | 73 | +42 |
MORE: What happens if Liverpool and Man City are tied on points?
Manchester City run-in
- Total matches remaining: 1
- Home matches: 1 — vs. AVL
- Away matches: 0
Between a 3-2 home loss to Tottenham on Feb. 19 and a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace on March 14, the dropped points by Man City in recent months gave a steamrolling Liverpool side the chance to get back in the race.
But Man City took advantage of Liverpool’s home draw against Tottenham by registering an emphatic 5-0 win over Newcastle on May 8, followed by a 5-1 road win at Wolves three days later.
The Citizens then were held by Man City in a 2-2 draw, in which Riyad Mahrez missed a penalty to win it late. Still, the point means that City still control their own destiny, and a win at home on the final day would clinch the title.
| Match | Date | Home/Away | Opponent | Time (BST) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | H | Aston Villa | 4 p.m. | 11 a.m. |
MORE: Premier League battle to avoid relegation
Liverpool run-in
- Total matches remaining: 2
- Home matches: 1 — vs. WOL
- Away matches: 1 — at SOU
Based on the Premier League table, Liverpool always had the tougher run-in than City and it proved to be the case as they dropped points in a 1-1 home draw on May 7 against Tottenham Hotspur. The Reds bounced back by grinding out a win at Aston Villa (2-1), but they still still need Manchester City to drop points.
At this point it won’t be easy for Klopp’s team: They have no choice but to keep trying to win and hope Aston Villa can get a last-day result against Man City.
| Match | Date | Home/Away | Opponent | Time (BST) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | Tues, May 17 | A | Southampton | 7:45 p.m. | 2:45 p.m. |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | H | Wolves | 4 p.m. | 11 a.m. |
Who wins title if Man City, Liverpool finish level on points?
In the event that City and Liverpool finish level on points, the winner will be decided on goal difference.
City currently have a goal difference of +72, while Liverpool is at +65. If the teams are level on goal difference, the number of goals scored will come into play, but Man City are currently ahead in that department, too. City have found the net 94 times so far, while Liverpool are at 89.
As outlined on the Premier League’s official website, if the teams are also even on both those tiebreakers, then they will be awarded the same position in the table and a share of the title.
“If any clubs finish with the same number of points, their position in the Premier League table is determined by goal difference, then the number of goals scored. If the teams still cannot be separated, they will be awarded the same position in the table.”
