South African motorists could face another painful fuel-price increase in September as elevated oil prices and persistent Middle East uncertainty push CEF estimates sharply higher.
September Fuel Increases Loom
South Africa’s fuel outlook is deteriorating, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to potentially steep increases across petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin.
Current estimates indicate:
- Diesel 50ppm: under-recovery of about R2.90
- Diesel 500ppm: under-recovery of about R2.73
- Illuminating paraffin: around R2.14
- Petrol 95: under-recovery of 77 cents
- Petrol 93: under-recovery of 66 cents
If current trends persist through the end of August, petrol under-recoveries could rise toward 80–90 cents per litre, adding further pressure on already elevated prices.
Fuel Prices Have Already Surged
The latest threat comes after an extremely volatile year for South African fuel prices.
The price of 95 Unleaded climbed from R19.47 in March to R24.71 in August, after reaching a peak of R27.19 in June.
Diesel has faced even greater pressure, with the wholesale price rising from R17.70 in March to R25.30 in August, following a peak of R30.30 in May.
Although both petrol grades fell by 52 cents in August, diesel prices increased by more than R1 per litre.
Middle East Crisis Keeps Oil Elevated
International oil markets remain vulnerable as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt expectations for global energy supplies.
Brent crude has traded around $90 per barrel in August, well below earlier highs near $126 but still significantly above pre-war levels around $70.
While forecasts point toward gradual easing, the continuing geopolitical risks leave South African motorists exposed to another potentially painful increase when September’s final fuel prices are announced.
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
