Around 20 people made it known to the Scottish FA that they wanted to be considered to replace Steve Clarke as Scotland’s new head coach.
Not one of them was interviewed.
Not because they weren’t capable, but because the computer said no.
The days of board members sifting through applicants and picking the best are long gone thanks to football analytics and AI.
Computers don’t choose coaches but they are playing a bigger part in the process than ever before.
And so when Steve Clarke called time on his seven years in charge of Scotland, the SFA approached sporting intelligence company Twenty First Group for help.
Fans might know little about Sebastien Pocognoli but his name was one of 40 candidates thrown up after the company’s supercomputer crunched the data.
“I’ve been lucky enough over the past three years to have had my eyes open to it in the English Premier League,” said SFA chief football officer, Craig Mulholland.
“It’s not a new thing – everyone’s using it.
“It’s about who’s using it best,” he said.
The SFA have their own in-house data team but called on external help when trying to figure out the best strategy for what a Scotland head coach should look like.
A digital blueprint for footballing success determined by factors like culture, genetics and even weather.
“We looked at 10 different countries, similar size to Scotland, similar population base, similar football history and said ‘right, what are they doing that we need to make sure we’re doing to continue to progress?’
“Then you get a data set and put that against the coaches and that leads you to who you actually want to talk to,” said Mulholland.
The analytics process also dispelled some myths about what makes a good international coach.
“I thought that someone who had been an international manager before would be more successful, but what the data tells us is that people doing that job for the first time at international level are more successful.
“I thought older managers tended to be the ones you go for but there’s actually no difference in terms of success between those under and over 50.
“You would think that people from their own country might be more successful but again we found that wasn’t the case.”
Hardest task in the business
Data informs rather than decides though.
After the AI information gathering, meetings were held with a number of candidates before the SFA finally decided on Pocognoli.
Those who follow Scottish football, and Hearts in particular, will be familiar with the success of analytics firm Jamestown.
The secretive but very successful company was the brainchild of the Gorgie club’s investor, Tony Bloom.
In fact, Sebastian Pocognoli won the league in Belgium with Union Saint-Gilloise, in part, thanks to Jamestown’s ability to identify players.
Top clubs around the world rely heavily on similar companies that have popped over the last decade.
Football strategist, Lee Mooney spent six years as the analytics director at Manchester City before setting up his own company, MUD Analytics.
He says identifying managers is one of the hardest tasks in the business.
“If you think about it like Formula One – you have to judge the performance of the driver, independent to the car,” he said.
“And then think ‘how much of that win was down to the driver, and how much was down to the car?’
“When looking for a manager you have to have a complete understanding of the players first, before you can look to define the value that’s being added through coaching.
“You can’t put Pep in charge of Celtic or Mourinho in charge of Everton in-order to validate your predictions, so it’s super difficult to solve.”
Of course, being so open about the use of data means fans could question the merit if it doesn’t work out – that’s part of the gamble.
These days questions are more likely to come if it’s not part of process and if Sebastian Pocognoli gets it right, there will be no need for ‘ctrl, alt, delete.’
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