Abuja, Nigeria–(Newsfile Corp. – September 8, 2026) – Oxford-Metro Analytics has released the final results of its National Trust Poll, with Bola Ahmed Tinubu finishing 1,067 responses ahead of Peter Obi among 69,110 approved responses. The report presents national, state and geopolitical-zone results following the close of collection on September 7, 2026.
Oxford Analytics Data
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Tinubu received 24,469 responses, or 35.41%, followed by Obi with 23,402, or 33.86%, and Atiku Abubakar with 18,430, or 26.67%. All remaining candidates and response options together accounted for 2,809 responses, representing 4.06%.
The difference between Tinubu and Obi was approximately 1.54 percentage points, calculated from unrounded figures. No candidate received a majority of approved responses.
State results reveal distinct regional strengths
Tinubu recorded the highest tally in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory, including Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Oyo and Rivers. Obi led in eight states: Abia, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu and Imo.
Atiku led in Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Sokoto, Taraba and Yobe.
Aggregated by geopolitical zone, Tinubu led in the North West, North Central and South West. Obi led in the South East and South South, while Atiku led in the North East.
The leading tallies in each zone were:
- North West: Tinubu – 4,129 responses, representing 43.10% of the zone’s 9,579 responses.
- North East: Atiku – 1,235 responses, representing 55.46% of 2,227.
- North Central: Tinubu – 6,370 responses, representing 36.97% of 17,228.
- South West: Tinubu – 10,968 responses, representing 43.53% of 25,199.
- South East: Obi – 5,796 responses, representing 63.97% of 9,061.
- South South: Obi – 2,389 responses, representing 41.48% of 5,760.
A further 56 diaspora responses are included in the national total but excluded from the six-zone breakdown.
Close tallies in Rivers and the FCT
Rivers recorded 975 responses for Tinubu and 892 for Obi, an 83-response difference among 2,454 responses. In the FCT, Tinubu received 5,599 responses to Obi’s 5,278, a difference of 321 among 15,666 responses.
These gaps describe the recorded participation in each location and should not be interpreted as forecasts of electoral competitiveness.
Methodology and limitations
The final tally includes records marked approved on the polling platform. The poll was an open, self-selected participation exercise, and the results are unweighted. A conventional sampling margin of error does not apply.
Participation was geographically uneven: Lagos and the FCT together contributed 37,622 responses, or 54.44% of the national total. Self-selection, recruitment and differences in participation limit the extent to which the findings can be generalised.
The poll describes preferences among participating respondents. It is not a representative survey of Nigeria’s electorate, an official election result or a prediction of the 2027 presidential election.
The report and accompanying visualisations are available through Oxford-Metro Analytics.
About Oxford-Metro Analytics
Oxford-Metro Analytics publishes the National Trust Poll and accompanying national, state and regional results through its Public Pulse reporting.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/313361
Source: Tedfuel
