- Obi, Atiku grab eight each as 69,110 response poll reveals a three way political battle.
Nigeria’s political map has emerged sharply divided in a new national poll, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leading in 21 of the 37 state and Federal Capital Territory reporting areas, while Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar claimed eight each.
The Oxford Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, based on 69,110 approved and unflagged online responses, put Tinubu narrowly ahead nationally, with 24,469 responses, or 35.41 per cent. Obi followed with 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent, while Atiku recorded 18,430 responses, or 26.67 per cent. Just 1,067 responses separated Tinubu and Obi nationally.
But beneath the narrow national margin lies a dramatically divided electoral map, with each of the three leading contenders dominating distinct parts of the country. Tinubu’s 21 leading reporting areas cut across the North, South West and parts of the South South and North Central. He led Benue, Borno, Delta, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Zamfara and the FCT.
The President’s strongest regional base was the South West, where he secured 10,968 of 25,199 responses, or 43.53 per cent. Lagos was particularly decisive, contributing 9,265 responses to his national tally. Tinubu also led the North West with 43.10 per cent and the North Central with 36.97 per cent.
Obi’s strength was concentrated in the southern half of the country, particularly the South East.
He led Abia, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu and Imo.
His strongest regional performance came in the South East, where he captured 5,796 of 9,061 responses, representing 63.97 per cent.
The scale of his lead was particularly striking in some states. In Ebonyi, Obi received 582 of 585 responses. In Anambra, he secured 247 of 251, while in Abia he received 569 of 666. He also won the South South with 2,389 responses, or 41.48 per cent, ahead of Tinubu’s 1,785 and Atiku’s 1,433.
Atiku’s strongest territory was the North East, where he received 1,235 of 2,227 responses, representing 55.46 per cent. He led Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Sokoto, Taraba and Yobe. His most emphatic state level victories came in Kebbi and Nassarawa. In Kebbi, Atiku received 661 of 662 responses, while in Nassarawa he secured 590 of 599. The results underscore the continued strength of Atiku’s support in parts of northern Nigeria, even as Tinubu maintained the upper hand across the wider North West and North Central.
Three reporting areas emerged as particularly close battlegrounds. Kogi produced the poll’s closest contest, with Tinubu receiving 39 responses and Atiku 38. The difference was just one response.
The FCT also delivered a nail biting contest, with Tinubu recording 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278. In Rivers, Tinubu led Obi by only 83 responses, securing 975 against Obi’s 892. Atiku recorded 568. The narrow margins make the three reporting areas among the most closely contested parts of the poll.
Oxford Metro Analytics described the exercise as an open online public pulse poll, not a probability based opinion survey.
