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Olorogun Dr Joshua Oghenejiru Muwhen is the Acting Managing Director of Delta Mortgage Trust Bank. In this Interview with EJIKEME OMENAZU he speaks on several issues, including President Bola Tinubu’s Tinubu’s reforms, 2027 elections, fears of one-party state, among others. Excerpt:
How would you assess the current state of governance in Nigeria in terms of delivering the dividends of democracy?
First and foremost, my views on the state of the nation are personal based on my analytical and observations and do not represent the official position of Delta Trust Mortgage Bank Limited. Nigeria has undoubtedly made progress in sustaining democratic governance since 1999, and the fact that we have maintained constitutional rule for over two decades is itself significant. However, democracy must ultimately be assessed beyond elections and institutions. The ordinary Nigerian measures democracy by the availability of food, security of life and property, employment opportunities, education, healthcare, electricity, housing and the ability to live with dignity. There have been reforms, infrastructure programmes and attempts at strengthening institutions, but there remains a considerable gap between policy formulation and the experience of the average citizen. My position is that the next phase of Nigerian democracy must be about delivery. Democracy must become visible in the marketplace, in our schools, hospitals, farms, roads, businesses and household incomes. Governance is at its best when citizens can feel its impact without having to be told about it.
What are the three most pressing issues facing Nigerians today — inflation, insecurity, unemployment, or something else?
I would identify the cost of living, insecurity and the quality of employment and economic opportunities as the three most pressing challenges. First is the cost of living. Although headline inflation has statistically moderated—the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) currently reports headline inflation around 15.9 per cent— lower inflation does not mean that prices have returned to where they were. It simply means that the rate at which prices are of increasing has slowed. Families are still confronting high food, transportation, housing and energy costs. Second is insecurity. No economy can realize its potential where farmers cannot confidently access their farms, businesses face security risks and families fear kidnapping or violent crime
Economic conditions will undoubtedly be one of the defining issues of the election. Most voters do not evaluate macro-economic reform from spreadsheets. They evaluate the government from the price of rice, transportation, rent, school fees, electricity, healthcare and what remains from their salaries at the end of the month. Therefore, the key political question may not simply be whether reforms are economically sound, but whether citizens begin to feel tangible improvement before they vote. However, economics will not operate in isolation. Candidate’s credibility, regional calculations, security, party structures, voter turnout, opposition unity and local political dynamics will also influence the outcome. For the incumbent administration, an improvement in food prices, purchasing power and security could significantly strengthen the case that the difficult reforms are beginning to yield dividends. Conversely, persistent hardship will naturally become a powerful campaign argument for the opposition. Ultimately, the Nigerian voter will determine which narrative is more persuasive.
In your view, what impact do you think the off-cycle election in Osun State will make on our fledgling democracy?
The Osun governorship election of August 15, 2026 provides several important lessons. First, it demonstrated that elections can remain competitive even where the ruling party at the federal level has enormous political strength. Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord was returned with 511,067 votes against 444,815 votes for his closest APC challenger. Second, it reinforces the principle that candidate acceptability and local performance can sometimes transcend traditional party structures. Third, reports from observers indicated that the poll was largely peaceful and that election day operations showed encouraging improvements, although concerns remained about vote buying and some BVAS-related delays. The lesson of the Osun election for the 2027 poll is therefore both encouraging and cautionary. INEC can improve operationally, but technology alone cannot cure money politics, voter inducement or political violence. Osun should be treated as a laboratory from which INEC, security agencies, political parties and civil society should extract lessons before the general election.
Are INEC and the electoral system better prepared for free, fair and credible elections in 2027 compared with 2023? What improvements are still needed?
I believe there has been progress, but public confidence must still be earned. BVAS and electronic result-management systems are important innovations. INEC is also undertaking measures to improve the integrity of the voters’ register, including revalidation and the removal of anomalies. The experience of 2023 showed, however, that technology creates confidence only when implementation is transparent and consistent. The difficulties associated with the timely upload of presidential results to IReV significantly affected public confidence, as election observers subsequently noted. For 2027, I would emphasise five things: dependable BVAS functionality; robust and redundant electronic infrastructure; transparent and timely results management; properly trained election personnel; and absolute neutrality by security agencies. INEC should also communicate more effectively and subject critical technology to credible pre-election testing.The goal should be simple: the result announced must unmistakably reflect the votes cast.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Nigeria’s democracy as we approach 2027? Why?
I am cautiously optimistic. Nigeria’s democracy has survived serious tests since 1999. We have witnessed changes of government, judicial interventions, vibrant media scrutiny, growing civil-society participation and increasingly politically conscious citizens. But optimism cannot mean complacency. Vote-buying, political violence, weak internal party democracy, ethnic and religious rhetoric, excessive monetisation of politics and declining trust in institutions remain serious dangers. Democracy is a continuous process of institutional improvement. No democracy becomes perfect overnight. The fact that Nigerians openly debate government policies, challenge leaders, organise politically and demand accountability demonstrates that democratic consciousness is alive. Our responsibility is to strengthen the institutions that allow citizens’ voices to prevail. So, I remain optimistic—not because everything is perfect, but because Nigerians have repeatedly demonstrated their determination to protect democratic rule and demand better governance.
How would you rate the chances of the opposition parties if they present a single presidential candidate in 2027?
A single opposition candidate would clearly improve the opposition’s competitive position, but unity by itself does not guarantee victory. The fragmentation of opposition votes can advantage an incumbent, so consolidating political forces can be strategically important. Recent developments nevertheless show that efforts at unified opposition have struggled because major opposition figures and parties have proceeded with separate candidacies. A successful coalition must go beyond simply agreeing on one presidential candidate. It requires a shared programme, mutual trust, regional balance, functioning structures in polling units, credible candidates for other offices and mechanisms for resolving disagreements. The coalition must also answer a fundamental question: What does it offer Nigerians beyond defeating the incumbent? Therefore, a single candidate would increase competitiveness significantly, but the candidate must represent a credible national alternative with an identifiable programme for the economy, security and governance.
What advice would you give opposition parties, as an unbiased analyst, to remain relevant and competitive?
My advice would be that opposition politics must move from anger to alternative policy. Opposition parties should tell Nigerians what they would do differently on inflation, insecurity, electricity, agriculture, taxation, employment, education and constitutional reform. Second, they must practice internally what they demand nationally. Parties cannot condemn poor governance while conducting controversial or exclusionary primaries. Third, disagreements should be resolved early. A coalition assembled solely for election arithmetic without trust and shared principles is unlikely to survive. Fourth, opposition parties must develop grassroots structures rather than relying almost exclusively on personalities and social media. Finally, they should avoid ethnic and religious mobilisation. Nigeria needs a strong government, but it equally needs a credible opposition. A serious opposition improves democracy because it compels those in government to perform better.
Do you think the fear of a one-party state in Nigeria is real? What are the dangers, and how can it be avoided?
I understand why the concern has arisen, particularly given the scale of recent political defections and the growing numerical strength of the ruling party. Recent reporting indicates that the APC now controls a very substantial majority of state governorships. However, Nigeria is not constitutionally a one-party state, and we should distinguish between legal one-party rule and the emergence of a dominant political party Nevertheless, excessive concentration of political power can weaken accountability. Democracy works best where government knows that a credible alternative exists. The dangers of overwhelming dominance include complacency, weakened legislative scrutiny, diminished policy competition and reduced electoral choice. The answer is not to prevent people from joining political parties of their choice. Rather, we must strengthen internal democracy, INEC, the judiciary, civil society, the media and opposition institutions. Interestingly, Osun also reminds us that electoral competition remains alive. Nigerians themselves ultimately possess the power to prevent democratic monopolisation through their votes.
