2028 Parliamentary Seat Projections Show NPP Gaining Ground

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Global InfoAnalytics projects that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) would rise to 100 seats in Ghana’s 276-seat Parliament if an election were held as of yesterday, according to its first MRP model analysis of the 2028 contest. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) still leads on 154 seats, with two toss-ups and 20 undisclosed seats left unresolved.

The model combines poll results, the likelihood of voting for a particular candidate, assessments of incumbent MPs, and party affiliations. Executive Director Mussa Dankwa treats the output as a snapshot rather than a final prediction, and he stresses that the NPP’s rise is a net figure that hides gains and losses in both directions.

“That means they’ll add around 12 or 13 seats to their current total.”

The NPP currently holds 87 seats in the 9th Parliament, against 185 for the NDC and 4 for independents. A projected 100 seats would cut that distance from 98 seats to 54, and it would lift the party to 36.2 percent of the chamber. The NDC would hold 55.8 percent.

Mr Dankwa confirmed the direction of travel when the interviewer put the figures to him. He described the movement as a net result rather than a clean sweep. “There are areas they currently control that they may lose, and areas they previously lost that they may regain,” he stated.

He added that parties often misjudge their own prospects. “There are areas they think they’ll win, but we believe they may lose them,” he disclosed.

The governing party keeps a comfortable lead, yet the projection shows erosion. Moving from 185 seats to 154 would cost the NDC 31 seats, and it would end the party’s current two-thirds strength. A simple majority needs 139 seats, so 154 still clears the bar by 15.

That shift gives fresh weight to earlier assurances that the NDC would not abuse its supermajority. Mr Dankwa noted that the same churn affects the NDC. He explained that the reverse is true for the governing party, so the numbers do not follow a ready-made template.

The 22 seats outside both columns will determine how far the opposition can climb. One of the two toss-ups sits in the Ashanti Region and the other in the Bono Region.

Among the 20 undisclosed seats, five lie in the Eastern Region and four in the Ashanti Region, while the rest spread across the Upper West, Upper East, Western and North East regions. Mr Dankwa believes the Northern Region also features.

He blames respondent behaviour for the gap. “They are hiding their true voting intentions in those 20 constituencies,” he stated. If those voters reveal their choices, he added, the firm can redistribute the seats.

The arithmetic shows why that matters. Should the NPP win every uncommitted seat, it would reach 122 and still trail the NDC’s projected 154 by 32. Should the NDC win them all, it would reach 176. The Ashanti and Eastern regions, which hold the most hidden voting intentions, will therefore draw the closest attention in later updates.

Global InfoAnalytics declines to name the affected constituencies, even by region. Mr Dankwa describes the stance as policy, one applied in the last election and one he will keep. The firm will publish national projections from time to time as new data arrives, but it will not release area figures.

His explanation centres on political tension. “We don’t want those areas to become a flashpoint for politicians,” he stated. The details emerge three hours after polls close on Election Day.

The interviewer asked whether parties deserve advance notice to defend vulnerable seats. Mr Dankwa rejected the idea and put the public first. What matters most to the firm, he stressed, is the Ghanaian people, not the political party, since parties have their own resources to track where they are making progress.

Mr Dankwa invites caution about early numbers by pointing to the last election. His model then left roughly 20 or 22 seats unsettled, and the final result was 185 seats for the NDC and 87 for the NPP. “Definitely, there will be ups and downs,” he told the interviewer, who suggested the headline figure could rise or fall. Dankwa agreed without hesitation.

The projection lands amid a shifting mood around the governing party. President Mahama’s approval rating reached a record 71 percent in June, before a later dip put his reset agenda under early pressure. Barker Vormawor has also called the NDC’s majority in Parliament underwhelming.

For the NPP, the numbers offer encouragement without certainty. The party has momentum on paper, a hidden bloc of 22 seats that could extend it, and more than a year of campaigning to turn a snapshot into a result.

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