Lagos may lose its ‘biggest city’ crown as Luanda prepares to overtake it with 20 million residents by 2050

Lagos’ population is expected to grow from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050, but at a slower pace than Luanda.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population could hit 1.7 billion by 2050, adding about 748 million new urban residents.

The World Bank warned that infrastructure, housing, transport and job creation will determine whether African cities benefit from rapid urbanisation.

For years, Lagos has carried the bragging rights of being the biggest city in sub-Saharan Africa, but that title may soon change hands.

A new World Bank report has projected that Angola’s capital, Luanda, could overtake Lagos as the region’s most populated city by 2050.

The report, titled “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation,” said Luanda’s population is expected to jump from about 11.4 million people in 2025 to 20.3 million by 2050.

That means the Angolan city could add roughly 8.9 million more residents within 25 years, increasing by 78 per cent.

Meanwhile, Lagos, which currently has an estimated population of 12.8 million, is projected to grow to about 16.2 million by 2050.

In simple terms, while Lagos will continue growing, Luanda’s population growth is expected to move faster, leaving the Nigerian megacity about 4.1 million people behind.

“Over this period, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report stated.

Luanda’s population was projected to rise sharply, putting Angola’s capital ahead of Lagos in the city rankings. The expected change between Lagos and Luanda is part of a much bigger urban growth trend happening across Africa.

According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population is expected to increase by 748 million people between 2025 and 2050, reaching about 1.7 billion.

The region’s urban population has already grown rapidly, moving from around 170 million people in 1975 to an estimated 913 million in 2025.

But the World Bank warned that having more people in cities does not automatically mean better living conditions or stronger economies.

The institution said African countries need to create around 15 million jobs every year to keep up with the growing number of young people entering the workforce.

For cities like Lagos and Luanda, the challenge will not just be about having more residents but ensuring there are enough homes, transport systems, jobs and infrastructure to support them.

Heavy traffic congested a major Lagos expressway during peak commuting hours. The report pointed out that issues such as poor transportation networks, inadequate infrastructure, weak urban planning and uncontrolled city expansion could prevent African cities from fully benefiting from population growth.

For Lagos residents, this means familiar problems like traffic congestion, housing shortages and pressure on public services could become even more important as the city continues expanding.

The World Bank recommended that governments invest more in affordable housing, transportation systems and infrastructure while improving urban planning and attracting private-sector investment.

It also warned that decisions made today about land, housing and city development will determine how well African cities cope with future population growth.

The bank believes that if properly managed, urbanisation could become a major driver of economic growth and job creation across the continent.

But if ignored, rapidly growing cities may struggle under the weight of their own success.