How Gachagua’s three-bloc proposal threatens Opposition unity

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Wiper Patriotic Front’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Linda Mwananchi’s Edwin Sifuna and DCP’s Rigathi Gachagua /HANDOUTFormer Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s proposal to unite Mt Kenya, Western Kenya and Ukambani voting blocs into a formidable political alliance has exposed emerging divisions within the Opposition, with fellow principals warning that his approach could undermine efforts to build a united front against President William Ruto in 2027.

At the centre of the disagreement is a fundamental question about how the Opposition should assemble a winning coalition: through regional voting arithmetic or a broader national political arrangement built around ideas, leadership credentials and negotiated power-sharing.

Gachagua believes consolidating influential regional constituencies provides the foundation for challenging Ruto, arguing that an alliance bringing together himself, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) leader Kalonzo Musyoka would command sufficient numbers to secure the presidency.

Speaking during an interview with a local vernacular television station on Sunday, Gachagua argued that the three leaders could bring together significant voting blocs from Mt Kenya, Western Kenya and Ukambani, creating a political combination capable of taking power in the next election.

He said his calculations were based on Mt Kenya’s voting strength, which he estimated at 35 per cent of the national vote, arguing that the region needed additional support from other communities to cross the constitutional presidential threshold.

“Because of the 50+1 requirement, our votes are so many. However, we can’t win the election alone. We are 35 percent. We need other 15 plus 1,” he said.

Gachagua identified Sifuna’s reception in Western Kenya as an important factor in his proposed arrangement, drawing parallels with the political partnership between former President Mwai Kibaki and the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa.

“I did my own research and found that this young man called Sifuna has been well received at his backyard. When Kijana Wamalwa united with Mwai Kibaki [in 2002] we won,” he said.

He was categorical that bringing together himself, Sifuna, WPF leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa would provide the Opposition with the political numbers required to challenge Ruto.

“Between I, Sifuna and Eugene Wamalwa and Kalonzo Musyoka; the election is done,” he declared.

Gachagua further claimed that the proposed alliance would consolidate Mt Kenya, Nairobi and the Maasai community, while leaving room for other political players to join.

“Even if we to fail getting others (but I believe we shall get them because they are there). Among the people with Sifuna, Kalonzo Musyoka and Riggy-G;together with the Maasai because they are behind me,” he said.

He maintained that the three leaders could secure the presidency by negotiating an agreement around their respective political bases.

“I have the Mountain, the whole of Nairobi and the Maasai. If we sit among us and reach to an agreement; we shall have got the government and have sent [Ruto] home,” he said.

Gachagua traced his regional mobilisation strategy to engagements with elders from Mt Kenya, who allegedly tasked him with reaching out to leaders from other communities following political developments that threatened the region’s influence.

“When it became apparent that there were plans to harm Mt Kenya region, elders tasked me with the responsibility of looking for leaders from other communities so that we could unite them,” he said.

He described his subsequent engagements with the Akamba, Abaluhya, Kisii and Maasai communities as the beginning of his ‘cousin’ political mobilisation.

“That’s when I started the ‘cousin’ push. I went and sought for the Akamba, the Abaluhya, the Kisiis and Maasais; and we united,” he said.

Gachagua added that his recent tour of the United States had reinforced his determination to begin preparations for the next election.

“When I was in the US; I told myself ‘the election has come’. A time has come so that we can plan the election. A fire is lighten up with fire,” he said.

He maintained that presidential politics was fundamentally about numbers and insisted that the proposed arrangement would not exclude other opposition leaders.

“When you want to rule as Kenyan president, it is a game of numbers. Someone starts with the already known large numbers.”

“We shall not drop anyone, we shall continue engaging,” he added.

However, Gachagua’s proposal has exposed competing approaches to coalition building within the Opposition, with Jubilee Party presidential aspirant Fred Matiang’i warning that reducing the presidential contest to ethnic voting blocs could undermine unity.

Matiang’i argued that presenting particular communities as political possessions of individual leaders risked alienating other players in the coalition.

“That majoritarian arrogance and that particular pride is precisely what is going to split the opposition and make it very difficult for the opposition to come together. The leadership and future of our country is not to be decided on ethnic balkanisation. I thought that this was a competition of ideas, platforms, track records, competence and qualifications,” Matiang’i said.

He maintained that no individual leader should dictate the communities or voters who must support a particular candidate, insisting that Kenyans should determine the coalition’s presidential choice.

“Kenyans must have the final say in choosing the flag bearer. No leader should dictate whom the people must support. The future of our country belongs to all Kenyans, and their voices must guide that decision,” he said.

The disagreement highlights competing interests within the United Opposition, which also brings together People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro of the People’s Party of Kenya (PPK) and Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi.

Matiang’i has recently appeared alongside Karua and Nyoro at joint political rallies, signalling other political engagements within the coalition that may not necessarily revolve around Gachagua’s proposed three-bloc arrangement.

Although Karua, Nyoro and Muturi are yet to publicly respond to Gachagua’s latest remarks, their political interests will inevitably form part of negotiations over the coalition’s leadership and presidential ticket.

The constitutional requirement that a presidential candidate secure more than 50 per cent of valid votes cast and at least 25 per cent in more than half of the counties also makes geographical reach essential.

Political analyst Joan Bhoke warns that the public disagreements could complicate the Opposition’s efforts to establish a common political front.

“If the Opposition is still determined to defeat President Ruto in 2027, they should contain their principals against making potentially damaging remarks. Any division in the opposition is a blessing in disguise for the President,” she says.

Bhoke argues that unresolved disagreements could weaken the coalition, particularly if some principals eventually decide to support Ruto or pursue independent presidential campaigns.

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