Risk management strategies for the current planting season

The South African Weather Service and Department of Agriculture have warned that the coming season may bring increased risks of heat stress, moisture deficits, and uneven rainfall distribution.

Under these circumstances, yield losses are often caused not by a total lack of seasonal rainfall but by:

Farmers can still consider a number of mitigation measures. Jaco Naudé, area sales manager for Pannar Seed in the Free State, says these include adjusting planting strategies, considering a reduction in maize hectares on marginal soils, planting sunflower, staggering planting dates to spread risk, and reviewing fertiliser and planting rates.

He also points out that irrigating during cooler periods of the day can play a role in mitigating stress during warm spells.

According to Charles Basson, portfolio and technical marketing manager for row crops at Syngenta Seeds South Africa, it’s important to keep an eye on soil temperature during planting and in the first few days afterwards.

“Temperature fluctuations between warm days and cool nights can cause crop stress, and they play a major role in activating the Sclerotinia fungus that lurks in the soil, which can affect sunflowers,” he says.

“When temperatures remain stable, sclerotia are less likely to activate; it’s temperature fluctuation that acts as the fungus’s biological alarm clock.”

For maize, Basson emphasises that it’s also important to pay attention to weed control during germination and the first few weeks of the plant’s development.

Yolandi Furniss, Syngenta Seedcare’s marketing lead for Africa and the Middle East, says that during a dry summer, seed treatments for nematode control can help reduce risk.

“Nematode damage is often worse under drought stress. When soil moisture is limited, root systems already struggle to access water, and nematodes can further reduce root efficiency, which can amplify yield losses,” she explains.

Furniss adds that seed treatments can provide early-season protection, as they help protect young roots during establishment, which is especially valuable when crops need to develop strong root systems quickly to withstand drought stress later in the season.

Corné Louw, head of applied economics and member services at Grain SA, cautions that from an economic perspective, the 2026/27 season may not be a year to experiment with untested products or management practices.

“Producers are facing a challenging combination of elevated input costs, particularly energy-related inputs influenced by instability in the Middle East, relatively low grain prices, and the risk of drought conditions later in the season,” he says.

“In such an environment, careful input procurement becomes critical. Farmers should ensure they purchase the correct inputs, in the right quantities and of the right quality, at competitive prices.”

He emphasises that fertiliser strategies, in particular, should be reassessed based on sound soil analyses and realistic yield expectations, ensuring that fertiliser programmes are aligned with both crop requirements and economic realities.

Equally important, Louw adds, is a clear understanding of production costs for each crop and for different fields or management zones on the farm, enabling informed planting and input decisions that protect profitability and cash flow.

Petrus Roux of Kromvlei Boerdery in the Hoopstad area of the Free State says it’s essential to plan for every season.

“After each harvest, we start finalising plans for the next planting season. We consider several factors, including the weather outlook,” he explains.

Roux plants 50% of his land to maize and the other 50% to groundnuts, soya bean, and sunflower. He also farms cattle and game.

He believes that going into a season with a negative attitude will result in negative outcomes.

“We’ve done our planning and will act accordingly.”

Le Roux Erasmus of Leeuwkrantz Boerdery, between Hoopstad and Bothaville, says that while he’ll largely follow his usual approach this season, he’ll adopt more conservative planting densities.

He notes that every season presents its own challenges.

“Over the past couple of years, we’ve been planting at higher densities, but this season, we’ve decided to be more conservative and plant at a lower seeding rate,” he explains.

Erasmus planted both sunflower and maize slightly earlier.

“Late-summer and winter rains provided sufficient soil moisture, creating ideal planting conditions.

“If you worry too much about things that are out of your control, you’ll do nothing. Do what you can with the information at your disposal. That’s all you can do.”

Kobus le Roux of Grootrust Boerdery in Hoopstad says planning is one of the most important things on the agenda throughout a season.

“Each year has many uncertainties, and you must make plans and take decisions based on the knowledge you have at a certain point in time.

“It’s the same for the 2026/27 planting season. We’ll do what we can to mitigate the possible effects of El Niño. We won’t take any unnecessary risks. I’ll reduce some maize hectares, especially those on more marginal soils,” he explains.

Pietie Labuschagne of Robyn Boerdery in Hoopstad has split his sunflower planting, planting half in October, with the remainder to be planted in December, as usual.

“Although we increased maize and soya bean planting densities in recent years, I’ll use lower densities this season. Fields that aren’t planted will remain fallow,” he says, adding that he also plans to plant less maize.

Hendrik Kotzé of Hendiko Boerdery in Hoopstad decided to plant less maize.

“I took the decision in light of the El Niño predictions, but also because of the high input costs, the low maize price at the time, and the current maize carry-over stock. These are things that one has to think about and then make the best decision for the business,” he explains.

Kotzé will plant more sunflower, and says he’ll plant his trials at the usual time to see what influence El Niño will have on the hybrids in the trial.

He says that for him, it doesn’t make sense to vary planting times too much or to split planting dates between sunflower, soya bean, and maize, as these decisions affect implement management, not only during planting but also later in the season during spraying and harvesting.

He says he prefers to keep planting schedules relatively straightforward, as the timing of planting affects implement management not only during planting but also later in the season, when spraying and harvesting take place.

Christo Groenewald of CJG Boerdery near Hertzogville in the Free State says his precision farming principles help mitigate risks in any season.

“I already do variable fertiliser applications and planting rates, which helps a great deal with managing soils and cost per hectare,” he explains.

Groenewald notes that, given the predictions for the season ahead and the cost of fertiliser and diesel, he’ll be cutting back on his fertiliser applications across the board.

He has also decided to plant more soya bean and sunflower this season, reducing his maize plantings.