Government fuel intervention spares motorists more pain

Fuel expenses look set to lower in November, following several record-breaking increases since the start of the Middle East conflict in February.

Diesel prices could come down by between R1.60 and R1.70 per litre for both grades, while petrol could see a marginal drop of no more than 30 cents per litre. This would bring prices down from the records seen in October.

Read: Petrol price set to breach R30 mark in another fuel first Diesel surge threatens inflation, interest rates and consumer spending

If it weren’t for the latest fuel levy reprieve announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, fuel prices across the board would have instead increased again to new highs.

According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) projections, fuel prices are still experiencing an under recovery.

Petrol 93 is at an under recovery of about R1.32 and 95 octane at R1.20. Diesel 0.05% is at under recovery of about R1.34 and 0.005% at roughly R1.28.

But those prices will be offset by the fuel levy reduction – less R3 for diesel and less R1.50 for petrol.

Godongwana’s intervention will be in place up until 1 December 2026 to provide temporary relief to motorists and industry.

From 2 December, the relief will drop to R1 for petrol and R1.50 for diesel befogging winding down in January.

Despite previously warning there was no fiscal room for further aid, it’s now the second time this year that government has had to step in to cushion the exorbitant fuel hikes, thanks to the higher oil prices from the war.

The temporary fuel levy reductions between April and June 2026 cost R17.2 billion in foregone tax revenue. The October to January package is estimated at R10 billion.

Read: No further fuel levy relief, as Treasury rebalances books Fresh scramble to avert pain for SA as Middle East conflict continues

With a week to go until the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announces the official adjustments, the CEF’s projections could still change to account for further moves in oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange, with are key determinants of the fuel prices for a net importer like South Africa.

Brent crude is currently tracking at $114 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East continue. This is almost 9% higher than it was at the end of September, when oil prices about $105 per barrel.

During the same period, the rand weakened to the current R16.57, from R16.39.

A change in market conditions means the marginal drop in petrol prices could still be even lower or cancelled out.

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