Meteorologists Defend El Niño Forecast Amid Public Doubts

Kenya’s El Niño preparedness plans have come under renewed scrutiny following claims that the country will not experience the devastating rains initially anticipated, raising questions about the government’s response and the forecasts that informed it.

The debate follows remarks by President William Ruto that Kenya would not experience the expected El Niño rains, with the government indicating that rainfall would instead be above average. The change in messaging has prompted questions about the billions of shillings reportedly mobilised to prepare for possible flooding and other weather-related emergencies.

According to NTV Kenya, the government had previously prepared for the anticipated October-to-December rains, which were considered a potential threat to communities, infrastructure and livelihoods.

Why the Forecast Has Become Controversial

The controversy centres on whether the public was given an exaggerated picture of the expected rainfall and whether the government’s preparedness measures were based on the best available scientific information.

Some commentators have questioned whether Kenyans were misled by the earlier warnings. However, describing the situation as a scam remains an opinion and does not, by itself, establish that officials deliberately deceived the public.

Weather forecasts are based on probabilities, and changing rainfall expectations do not automatically mean that earlier predictions were dishonest. The strength of an El Niño event also does not guarantee that every region will experience extreme rainfall.

Despite the public debate, the Kenya Meteorological Department and regional climate experts have continued to defend their seasonal outlook.

In a report published on October 16, 2026, the Kenya News Agency reported that meteorologists from seven East African countries reaffirmed expectations of enhanced rainfall in parts of the region between October and December.

Kenya Meteorological Department official Jemimah Ongoma said the forecast had not changed, while climate scientist Eunice Koech cautioned that a strong El Niño does not necessarily translate into exceptionally heavy rainfall in every location.

The experts also noted that delayed rainfall in some areas did not automatically mean the seasonal outlook was wrong. Other climate factors influence rainfall patterns, including conditions in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization reported on September 3 that El Niño was established and expected to strengthen, with potential effects on rainfall and temperatures extending into 2027.

The debate has also drawn attention to the government’s preparations, including the reported mobilisation of more than Sh10 billion for mitigation measures.

Such preparations can include flood response, emergency supplies and other interventions intended to protect lives and property. However, the public has a legitimate interest in understanding how the funds were allocated, what has been spent and how authorities will account for the money if the anticipated conditions differ from earlier expectations.

The government’s position, the meteorologists’ forecasts and the actual rainfall recorded across different counties will be important in assessing the effectiveness of the preparations.

For now, the available evidence does not establish that Kenyans were deliberately scammed. What remains clear is the need for transparent communication about changing forecasts, clear explanations of public spending and continued reliance on official weather updates rather than unverified claims.

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