Kuria Shares World Bank Analysis Comparing Kenya’s Debt Sustainability Under Kibaki and Uhuru

Moses Kuria has reignited debate over Kenya’s mounting public debt after sharing a World Bank debt sustainability analysis comparing the country’s financial position at the end of Mwai Kibaki’s presidency with the situation during Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration.

The comparison presents a striking picture of Kenya’s changing debt sustainability outlook. In 2013, at the end of Kibaki’s presidency, the country had a high debt-carrying capacity and a low risk of default.

By 2018, midway through Uhuru’s tenure, the assessment had deteriorated to medium debt-carrying capacity and medium default risk. Towards the end of Uhuru’s presidency in 2020, Kenya was classified as having low debt-carrying capacity and high default risk.

The figures have reopened a fierce political contest over economic management, with questions emerging about how successive administrations have contributed to the country’s financial predicament.

Kibaki’s tenure is being remembered by some as a period of comparatively stronger fiscal resilience, while the subsequent deterioration has become ammunition in the wider debate over borrowing, public expenditure and the sustainability of government projects.

However, Kuria’s comparison has also attracted criticism from Kenyans who argue that the analysis should account for the financial demands introduced by devolution, including the wage bill and the cost of maintaining county governments.

They contend that comparing different administrations without examining their economic circumstances, spending priorities and inherited obligations risks producing a politically convenient rather than comprehensive assessment.

Attention has equally shifted to President William Ruto’s administration, with critics demanding a similar breakdown of debt accumulated during his presidency.

They argue that the government should be subjected to the same scrutiny, particularly amid concerns about additional borrowing and the burden future generations may inherit.

Ultimately, the debate has evolved beyond Kibaki’s legacy into a broader demand for accountability, transparent borrowing and credible economic stewardship.

Kenyans want to know which administrations strengthened the economy, which weakened its resilience, and who will ultimately pay the price for the country’s escalating debt.

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