Polling Data Reveals JDM’s Mixed Approval Ratings in Ashanti Region Ahead of 2028

A recent analysis of polling data from the Ashanti Region has shed light on the current political landscape, revealing a mixed bag of approval ratings for President John Dramani Mahama (JDM) across various constituencies. The data, shared by political analyst Mussa Dankwah, highlights key areas of strength and vulnerability for the ruling party as attention gradually shifts toward the 2028 general elections. The findings are based on a survey of 14 constituencies in the Ashanti Region, a traditional stronghold of the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP).

According to the data, President Mahama has recorded negative net approval ratings in four key constituencies: Old Tafo, Ejisu, Oforikrom, and Bosomtwe. The net approval rating, calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents who rate the president’s performance as poor or very poor from those who rate it as excellent, very good, or good, serves as a key indicator of public sentiment. In contrast, all Members of Parliament (MPs) in the polled areas have positive net favourability ratings, with the notable exception of the MP for Bosomtwe.

Despite these negative figures in some areas, the data also reveals constituencies where President Mahama enjoys significant popularity. He scored high net favourability ratings in Atwima Kwawonma (78%), Asawase (55%), and Akrofuom (53%). A particularly interesting dynamic was observed in Akrofuom, where the sitting MP has a net approval rating of 85%, significantly higher than the president’s rating in the same constituency. This disparity suggests that voters are capable of separating their assessment of local leadership from their view of the national executive.

The analysis further breaks down the top five constituencies with the highest net approval ratings for MPs, which include Subin (86%), Akrofuom (85%), Nsuta/Kwamang/Beposo (83%), Asawase (66%), and Manhyia North (63%). Conversely, the constituencies with the lowest net approval ratings for MPs are Bosomtwe (-17%), Ejisu (7%), Alogya Kwabre North (13%), Old Tafo (19%), and Effiduase/Asokore (20%). The data indicates that in 12 out of the 14 constituencies analyzed, the MPs have a higher net approval rating than the president, with the gap being particularly wide in Subin, where the MP leads by 61 percentage points.

Mussa Dankwah noted that these data points and many others are being incorporated into a predictive model to forecast future electoral outcomes. The analysis suggests that while President Mahama maintains a strong connection with some areas in the Ashanti Region, there are clear pockets of dissatisfaction that could pose challenges for the ruling party. The performance of local MPs, which often outshines the president’s ratings, adds another layer of complexity to the region’s political dynamics, making it a key area to watch as the political cycle progresses toward 2028.