2027 Presidential poll: Why Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Edo, Kaduna, Lagos, Rivers are potential battlegrounds

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Read History Go to My Account Log Out Enhanced by Google BDSunday 2027 Presidential poll: Why Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Edo, Kaduna, Lagos, Rivers are potential battlegrounds President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid is setting the stage for intense political battles in Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Edo,

Listen to this article Share President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid is setting the stage for intense political battles in Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Edo, Kaduna, Lagos and Rivers, where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) faces the challenge of consolidating its expanding political influence, retaining existing support and winning over voters who rejected the president in 2023.

With the APC now controlling 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states, the party appears better positioned geographically than it was during the last presidential election.

However, there are arguments that its growing number of governors does not necessarily translate into guaranteed presidential votes, particularly in states where opposition candidates demonstrated considerable electoral strength.

The seven states present different political calculations for Tinubu and the APC. While some are traditional opposition strongholds, others are politically competitive territories where the ruling party must contend with influential opposition figures, internal disagreements and competing political interests.

Anambra presents one of the most interesting dimensions of the contest, particularly because Governor Chukwuma Soludo, who belongs to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), has emerged as a major figure in the APC’s South-East mobilisation strategy.

Although Anambra was a stronghold of Peter Obi in 2023, when the Labour Party presidential candidate secured an overwhelming victory, the political equation has since acquired a new dimension following APGA’s adoption of Tinubu as its consensus presidential candidate.

Soludo’s appointment as Anambra coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 presidential campaign provides the APC with an opportunity to penetrate a region where it has traditionally struggled to attract substantial electoral support.

APGA’s decision to support Tinubu for president while retaining its candidates for legislative and state assembly elections also reflects a strategic political arrangement rather than a merger with the ruling party.

The challenge, however, is whether Soludo can translate his political influence and APGA’s organisational structures into votes for Tinubu, particularly among voters who supported Obi in 2023. The omission of Anambra from the APC’s proposed presidential rally schedule has also raised questions about the extent of the party’s campaign strategy in the state.

Adamawa presents another major test, as Governor Ahmadu Fintiri faces the responsibility of delivering Tinubu in the home state of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate.

Atiku won Adamawa in 2023, reinforcing his political dominance in the state. However, Fintiri’s defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC has altered the state’s political configuration and brought its government into the ruling party’s fold.

The governor must now demonstrate that his defection has translated into a genuine transfer of political support to the APC, rather than merely changing the party controlling the government.

Atiku’s longstanding political network, personal connection with the state and influence among opposition supporters make Adamawa particularly difficult to deliver. Fintiri’s ability to mobilise former PDP supporters and consolidate the APC’s new political structure will therefore be closely watched.

In Benue, Governor Hyacinth Alia faces the challenge of consolidating the APC’s electoral strength amid internal political disagreements. Although Tinubu secured Benue in 2023, the contest was closely fought, demonstrating that the state’s political support cannot be taken for granted.

Alia’s emergence as governor strengthened the APC’s position, but disagreements involving the governor and influential party figures, including George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) have exposed divisions that could undermine the party’s mobilisation efforts.

The existence of competing political camps within the state chapter presents a major concern for the ruling party. For Tinubu, the challenge is not simply retaining Benue but ensuring that the governor and other influential APC stakeholders work together towards a common electoral objective.

The state’s strategic importance also explains its inclusion in the APC’s proposed presidential campaign rally schedule, with Makurdi expected to host one of the party’s major rallies.

Edo is another critical battleground, particularly following the APC’s return to power in the state through Governor Monday Okpebholo.

The Labour Party’s Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in Edo during the 2023 presidential election, reflecting the strength of opposition sentiment in a state with a substantial population of politically active voters.

However, the APC’s victory in the 2024 governorship election changed the political landscape and provided the ruling party with an opportunity to rebuild its grassroots structures.

Okpebholo must now demonstrate that the APC’s victory in the governorship election can translate into stronger support for Tinubu at the presidential level. The influence of former governor Adams Oshiomhole, who occupies a prominent position in the APC’s national mobilisation structure, could also strengthen the party’s campaign machinery.

Nevertheless, pundits say the governor must contend with the opposition’s existing support base and convince voters that the APC deserves another mandate.

Kaduna represents a significant test of the APC’s ability to recover ground in the North-West. Governor Uba Sani has publicly expressed his determination to deliver the state to Tinubu, even declaring his willingness to take a bullet for the president.

However, political declarations must translate into measurable electoral support. Atiku defeated Tinubu in Kaduna in 2023, making the state one of the important northern territories the APC must reclaim. With 4,662,640 registered voters, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Kaduna carries considerable electoral weight coming third according to INEC.

Sani’s challenge is complicated by the state’s diverse political interests, religious and regional considerations, and the enduring influence of opposition figures. His position as North-West coordinator in the APC’s campaign structure also places additional responsibility on him to strengthen the party’s appeal beyond Kaduna.

Lagos, Tinubu’s traditional political stronghold, presents perhaps the most symbolic battle of the seven states.

Despite his longstanding political influence in the state, Obi defeated Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election, exposing vulnerabilities in the APC’s electoral coalition.

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu must therefore confront the challenge of reversing that outcome and restoring the state’s position as a reliable electoral base for the president.

Lagos has 7,488,633 registered voters, the highest figure among the three most populous voter-registration states, alongside Kano and Kaduna.

The state’s cosmopolitan population, growing youth electorate and diverse political interests make electoral mobilisation particularly competitive.

For Tinubu, losing Lagos again would carry considerable political symbolism, while Sanwo-Olu faces pressure to demonstrate that the APC’s control of the state government can produce a convincing presidential victory.

Rivers completes the list of critical battlegrounds, with the political influence of Nyesom Wike adding another dimension to the APC’s re-election calculations.

Although Wike remains associated with the PDP, his relationship with Tinubu and inclusion in the presidential campaign mobilisation structure reflect the ruling party’s efforts to build alliances beyond its traditional membership.

Wike’s political influence in Rivers could prove valuable to Tinubu, particularly given his extensive grassroots network and longstanding involvement in the state’s political structure.

However, the relationship between Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara, alongside the political divisions that have characterised the state, presents complications for the APC’s mobilisation strategy.

The party must establish whether its alliance with Wike can translate into a broader electoral coalition capable of securing sustained presidential support.

The importance of these seven states is further underscored by Tinubu’s decision to attend rallies in only 12 states, leaving much of the grassroots mobilisation and voter engagement to governors, campaign coordinators and other party officials.

The APC’s expanded control of state governments may give Tinubu an organisational advantage, but the 2023 election demonstrated that political control does not automatically guarantee presidential votes.

Ultimately, Anambra, Adamawa, Benue, Edo, Kaduna, Lagos and Rivers will test different aspects of the president’s re-election machinery including the coalition-building, opposition penetration, internal party unity, grassroots mobilisation and the ability of governors to convert political influence into votes.

For Tinubu, the challenge goes beyond having more governors on his side; it is whether those governors can deliver the electorate.