David Ndii Reveals Why Milk Is Disappearing From supermarkets Points to Affordable Housing workers

Chief Economic Adviser David Ndii has offered a different explanation for the milk shortages being reported in some Kenyan supermarkets, insisting that the problem may have more to do with rising demand than declining production.

Speaking at the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, Ndii dismissed concerns that Kenya was producing less milk, arguing that the country’s dairy output had actually increased significantly since the current administration took office.

According to Ndii, the growing number of Kenyans consuming milk, including thousands of workers employed at affordable housing construction sites, could be putting additional pressure on supplies

He explained that many construction workers are now receiving milk as part of the provisions offered by contractors, creating an additional market for the dairy product.

Ndii suggested that this growing consumption may not always be reflected in the spending habits of people who traditionally form the country’s major milk-consuming market

“Certainly probably not the people in this room who haven’t increased their consumption a lot. But it means that there are people who aren’t consuming a lot of milk, who are now consuming a lot of milk,” Ndii remarked.

He further pointed to affordable housing construction sites, where hundreds of thousands of workers are reportedly engaged in daily activities.

According to the economist, anyone visiting these sites would notice crates of milk provided to workers as part of their daily supplies.

He explained that milk has increasingly become one of the essential items contractors provide alongside other necessities, contributing to the rising demand.

To support his argument, Ndii cited figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), indicating that the country’s annual milk production had increased by approximately 20 per cent since the current administration assumed office.

He placed Kenya’s annual milk production at about 5.6 billion litres, noting that the additional output alone was greater than the total annual milk production of approximately 90 per cent of African countries.

The economist also highlighted significant growth in the amount of milk being handled by processing companies.

According to Ndii, milk received by processors increased by 34 per cent, rising from approximately 500 million litres annually in 2022 to one billion litres last year.

He added that processor intake during the first eight months of 2026 remained close to the figures recorded during a similar period in 2025, despite concerns surrounding the impact of drought on milk production

Ndii argued that these figures point towards increasing consumption rather than a major decline in supply.

He questioned why supermarkets were experiencing stockouts when both production and the amount of milk delivered to processors had recorded substantial growth.

In his view, the most likely explanation was that demand had increased faster than the available supplies reaching retail outlets.

Beyond the supermarket shortages, Ndii also highlighted the growing economic importance of Kenya’s dairy industry, estimating that the country’s annual milk production was worth close to Ksh400 billion at current farm-gate prices.

He further pointed to the rising value of quality dairy cattle, revealing that good dairy heifers were fetching between Ksh300,000 and Ksh350,000.

The economist said the high prices reflected growing demand for productive dairy animals, adding that Kenya was importing cattle from countries such as South Africa and the Netherlands while also exporting dairy animals to other African markets.

Ndii also raised concerns about how economic changes in the country were being captured in official statistics.

He argued that some emerging economic activities, particularly those in rapidly expanding sectors, might not be adequately reflected in the country’s official economic data.

According to him, traditional statistical sampling methods may struggle to keep pace with the speed at which new economic activities are developing.

He disclosed that he had discussed the matter with KNBS, suggesting that some of the existing data collection methods could be overlooking developments taking place in newer and rapidly growing sectors.

His remarks come amid concerns over milk availability in some Kenyan supermarkets, with the economist maintaining that rising consumption could be putting pressure on retail supplies even as the country’s dairy production continues to grow.

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