Governor Sakaja’s Defection, Mt Kenya Factor, Ruto’s Pain and Gain in 2027 Matrix

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Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja’s defection to the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) from the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) could be viewed as a friendly-fire shift, but in reality, it is both a pain and a gain for President William Ruto.

For Ruto, the movement cannot only be viewed from the political prism of inter-coalition movement but also from the larger context of his Mt Kenya voting bloc in the 2022 General Election.

The defection prescribes a possible death knell for UDA in Nairobi and Mt Kenya politics, and a dawn that the Mt Kenya voting bloc has subsequently moved away from his fold to new political formations.

Sakaja rode to victory with 699,393 votes, against the Jubilee and Azimio la Umoja coalition candidate, Polycarp Igathe, who garnered 573,516 votes, with the majority of Sakaja’s support coming from Mt Kenya.

In the last General Election, UDA won only five of the 17 parliamentary seats in Nairobi County. In the Nairobi County Assembly, UDA has 53 Members of the County Assembly, comprising 36 elected and 17 nominated members.

The Azimio coalition, and significantly ODM, won 12 of the parliamentary seats, with ODM MPs including Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Jalang’o (Lang’ata), Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North), George Aladwa (Makadara), Tom Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), Peter Orero (Kibra) and Antony Oluoch (Mathare).

Under Jubilee, Mark Mwenje (Embakasi West), Amos Mwago (Starehe) and Yusuf Hassan (Kamukunji) carried the day.

Kalonzo’s Wiper Party retained the Embakasi South seat under the incumbent, Julius Mawathe.

In Nairobi County, ODM has a total of 52 ODM Members of the County Assembly (MCAs) following the 2022 General Election, which includes:

Sakaja finally made his four-year dalliance with ODM a reality and, on Monday, November 2, 2026, visited the party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga, who received him into the fold.

Last Saturday, Sakaja attended the ODM Jacaranda rally and donned ODM colours.

Sakaja wrote: “I had the pleasure of paying a courtesy call on ODM Party Leader, Senator Oburu Oginga, at his home this evening, where he warmly welcomed me into the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) family.

I am honoured by the warm reception and look forward to working closely with the party leadership and members as we strengthen the party and uphold the ideals and legacy of the late Rt. Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga, particularly his commitment to social justice, inclusivity and the unity of our nation.

Oburu wrote: “It was a great pleasure hosting Governor Johnson Sakaja at my home this evening.

I was truly delighted to officially welcome him into the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) family. As our party continues to grow and strengthen its roots, his joining marks a significant and welcome step forward for all our new members. Karibu sana to ODM.”

Sakaja’s movement has been necessitated by the reality that the Mt Kenya voting bloc has shifted, leaving the incumbent exposed and limping. The UDA factor in Nairobi has become marginal, with no known political stronghold in any of the constituencies in the city.

In the last General Election, Gachagua and Ruto’s allies from Mt Kenya were able to rally the Mt Kenya vote in support of Sakaja, and that is what brought him victory.

With the departure of Ndindi Nyoro and Gachagua, the presence of UDA in Nairobi politics has been neutralised, leaving Ruto in pain as he approaches the 2027 political matrix.

Equally, Sakaja puts a dent in UDA candidates’ chances of securing any elective post and leaves the party exposed as a marginal player in city politics.

Sakaja’s defection to ODM is a gesture to the party that it remains a significant player in Nairobi politics and that it still attracts candidates, including those from its coalition partner.

Similarly, it enhances its negotiation portfolio with President Ruto in the pre-election coalition agreement.

This is reinforced by the excitement that marked Sakaja’s defection to the party. The words of the party’s National Chairperson, Gladys Wanga, and the National Assembly Minority Leader, Junet Mohamed, sum it up.

Wanga wrote: “Karibu kwa Chama Kubwa, Governor Johnson Sakaja. The ODM Party family is proud to welcome you, partner with you and journey with you towards victory for the party in all electoral seats in the city.”

Junet wrote: “We have today received Nairobi Governor H.E. Johnson Sakaja to our party, being the first of many leaders across the country who will in due course join our democratic movement.

Governor Sakaja has worked cordially with our county assembly members, who form the majority in Nairobi County Assembly, as well as the many ODM members we seconded to his cabinet.

I urge party members and supporters to be ready to receive the thousands attracted to our party because of what we stand for: national unity and the rapid economic development and transformation of Kenya under a well-governed multi-party democratic state.

Sakaja could have set a precedent and, with the signing window open, UDA and President Ruto must be ready to witness the departure of key members to various outfits.

Most of the major defections will come from Mt Kenya, where UDA’s popularity has waned into obscurity.

For Ruto, the movement to ODM is a gain. ODM is the main partner, and Sakaja will be able to mobilise votes for him in the city and could be the leader of his campaign.

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