Two Gubernatorial Seats in Coast that the Opposition Could Win in 2027 (Opinion)

Coast is made up of six counties, namely Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River and Taita Taveta. The region was previously a stronghold of the late Raila Odinga. However, it has become a battleground following Raila’s death last year.

Both the broad-based government and the opposition are seeking to take control of the Coast region. The two camps are expected to share seats in the region in 2027. Here are the two gubernatorial seats in the Coast region that the opposition could win:

The seat is currently held by Abdulswamad Nassir, who is seeking re-election on an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket. His main contestants are Nyali MP Mohamed Ali of Wiper, Hassan Omar of Jubilee and EALA MP Suleiman Shabhal.

Abdulswamad, Hassan and Shabhal are all allied with the government, while Ali is in the opposition. The three broad-based government-allied candidates are likely to split government supporters, while Ali could consolidate opposition followers. This will give the Nyali MP an advantage in the race.

Additionally, Ali has the support of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. Kalonzo is very influential among the Kamba community, which accounts for around 30% of the Mombasa vote. Kalonzo’s endorsement will give Ali a big boost. Ali will need only a small percentage of the Mijikenda and Waswahili votes to emerge as the winner.

Although Lamu County is dominated by the Waswahili, there is also a significant Kikuyu population. The Kikuyu are currently behind former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Gachagua is expected to field a Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate in the Lamu gubernatorial race. The candidate will likely receive solid support from the Kikuyu community. They will need only a small portion of the Waswahili vote to clinch the seat.

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