New Survey Gives Ruto Lead as Kalonzo and Sifuna Battle for Second Place

President William Ruto has emerged as the leading candidate in a new opinion poll examining Kenyans’ presidential preferences ahead of the August 2027 General Election, while opposition figures Kalonzo Musyoka and Edwin Sifuna compete for second place.

The survey, conducted by Swiss Poll International between October 19 and 22, 2026, placed Ruto at 40.2%, giving him a substantial lead over the other politicians included in the study.

According to the findings, Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka secured second place with 19.7%, followed by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna at 17.6%.

The difference between Kalonzo and Sifuna was just 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a close contest between the two politicians for the position of Ruto’s leading challenger in the survey.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua ranked fourth with 7.5%, while former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i received 6.0%. Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro recorded 4.5%.

Meanwhile, 3.3% of respondents said they were undecided about their presidential preference.

The figures point to a divided opposition field, with several politicians attracting support but none matching Ruto’s reported percentage in the survey. However, the results represent voter preferences recorded during the poll period and do not establish the eventual outcome of the 2027 election.

Swiss Poll International surveyed 6,146 Kenyans drawn from all eight regions of the country: Nairobi, Rift Valley, Western, Eastern, Central, Nyanza, Coast and North Eastern.

The poll reported a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Men accounted for 52.8% of the respondents, while women represented 47.2%. Participants aged between 26 and 35 formed the largest age group, making up 25.8% of the sample.

The findings offer an early indication of the political landscape as leaders position themselves ahead of the next General Election. Nevertheless, voter preferences may change as campaigns develop, political alliances take shape and candidates communicate their agendas to the electorate.

For the opposition, the close figures between Kalonzo and Sifuna raise questions about who could emerge as the strongest challenger to Ruto if the current distribution of support persists.

The survey does not, however, determine who will eventually secure an opposition coalition’s presidential ticket or whether the different political camps will unite behind one candidate.

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