Why Ruto Could Be Disadvantaged If the Opposition Splits Ahead of the Next Election (Opinion)

Opposition leaders have been telling their supporters that they will stick together and field a single presidential candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the next General Election scheduled for Tuesday, August 10, 2027. They argue that uniting behind one candidate would give them a better chance of defeating the Head of State at the ballot.

However, visible cracks have emerged within the opposition camp, particularly between the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and leaders linked to the Jubilee Party and the People’s Party of Kenya (PPK). There is a possibility that Jubilee and PPK could form an alliance outside the arrangement involving DCP.

While a divided opposition is widely perceived as an advantage to Ruto, the situation could turn out differently. A split could present a challenge to the President’s re-election bid for several reasons.

First, if opposition leaders agree to support a single presidential candidate, other principals will not be on the ballot. Section of the supporter if these principals could choose to support Ruto instead of a candidate they do not personally prefer.

On the other hand, if the opposition splits and individual leaders decide to run for the presidency, they could retain the support of voters who prefer them personally. Such voters would have an opportunity to back their preferred candidates instead of switching their allegiance to Ruto after their leaders withdraw from the race.

For instance, section of the Gusii community could support Ruto if former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i backs another opposition candidate and does not contest the presidency. However, if Matiang’i appears on the ballot, his supporters will definitely vote for him to the last man.

The same situation could apply to Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who has gained political ground in Western Kenya and among young voters. If Sifuna decides to contest the presidency, he could attract support from voters who identify with his leadership and political positions.

However, if Sifuna abandons his presidential ambitions and endorses another opposition candidate, some of his supporters may not necessarily follow his lead, and could instead choose to vote for Ruto. This could apply to all the other opposition leaders.

Omondifredy feedback-opera-news-app@opera.com