Midseason 2027 NFL Draft QB Report: Arch Manning & Dante Moore Fall Short of Expectations, but the Group Still Looks Strong

It seems each year people are excited about the quarterback class before the college season starts, and every time the results end up disappointing everyone. Before the 2024 college season, the excitement was real for Shedeur Sanders, Jalen Milroe, Quinn Ewers, and Carson Beck. Nobody was talking about Cam Ward, the first pick of the 2025 NFL draft. A year later, there was excitement over Garrett Nussmeier, Cade Klubnik, Beck (again), and in some circles Drew Allar before the college season began, while few mentioned Fernando Mendoza, the top pick of the following year’s draft.

Rewind to last May when the excitement for the quarterbacks was over the top. Four quarterbacks didn’t just carry first-round grades on prediction; rather, four signal callers were projected as top-10 picks. And thus far, those at the top have not lived up to expectations.

Literally seconds after the New England Patriots made Kobee Minor the final selection of the 2025 draft, many predicted Arch Manning as the first pick of the 2026 draft. This was repeated by most a year later after Red Murdock was named “Mr. Irrelevant” as pick No. 257. I considered it to be absurd in both instances. Manning has tremendous physical skills and a famous last name, which opened the door for many to assume he was worth the first pick of the draft. Yet his play has not justified those opinions.

It’s halfway through the 2026 season, and Manning, who made a late-season surge in 2025, is repeating many of the mistakes from the past: staring down the primary target, slow going to secondary receivers and missing high of the mark in the short and intermediate field. As I reported one week ago, many scouts have compared him to Jake Locker due to his lack of consistency and lack of development as a passer.

So, will Manning be the first pick of the 2027 draft? The more relevant question would be to ask if he’ll even be a part of next year’s draft, as most in the NFL believe Manning is destined to return to Texas for another season on the college field.

Next up is Dante Moore, QB1 for me before the season began. While Moore has maintained his level of play, an injury in the USC game has raised durability concerns. Moore has not played poorly this season; he just hasn’t played better than a year ago, a campaign that would have been tough to top. As I reported this past January when Moore announced he was forgoing the NFL draft- landing spot, the potential to win a Heisman Trophy and compete for the national title were major factors in his decision to return for another season with Oregon, as well as a huge NIL deal.

Except for that NIL deal, none of that was accomplished. Then there’s the vicious blow he suffered in the USC game that has him sidelined. Again, as I reported one week ago, it’s a red flag teams will inspect once Moore enters the draft, and it’s no sure thing he will be in the 2027 selection process.

On the other hand, there are other players who have strengthened their NFL Draft prospects, while several others still have work to do before making the jump to the pros.

Trinidad Chambliss continues his magic on the college field, Darian Mensah improved upon a terrific 2025 season, and CJ Carr is living up to the hype. All are grade as top-15 picks.

Drew Mestemaker has taken his game to another level, though the belief in the scouting community is almost unanimous that the Oklahoma State quarterback would be best served playing one more season of college football.

And then there’s Brendan Sorsby, graded by scouts as a mid-first-round prospect at the start of the summer despite past gambling issues, which will be thoroughly inspected during the pre-draft process. Julian Sayin also receives first-round grades in areas of the scouting community, though many believe he will stay in college for the 2027 season.

LaNorris Sellers and Jayden Maiava have frustrated league scouts; most consider them physically gifted but fundamentally raw. In the case of Sellers, a complete overhaul is required.

Nico Iamaleava did not show great improvement on the field, even before the knee injury that is likely to keep him sidelined for a while. Sam Leavitt is a sandlot quarterback who’ll need to change his style of play to make it at the next level.

CJ Bailey, John Mateer and Demond Williams Jr. have watched their games regress or, at the very least, shown little to no progress as next-level prospects.

Drake Lindsey intrigues scouts, but he’s another they believe should return to school. Same for Austin Simmons, who has shown some incredible ability this season.

Lincoln Kienholz has really jumped on the scouting radar.

Josh Hoover is drawing comparisons to Brock Purdy in the scouting community for high-volume efficiency, rhythmic play in structure, and occasional hyper-aggressive risks, whereas Gunner Stockton is steady as a rock.

And while many bemoan what’s gone on with Manning and Moore, the quarterback class for the 2027 NFL Draft looks strong. A half-dozen players possess first-round grades, the middle rounds have a lot of potential, and Day 3 is full of quality prospects. If your team is selecting at the top of the draft and needs a quarterback, don’t despair if Manning decides to play for the Texas Longhorns in 2027; there will still be good signal callers available.

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