Fuel prices soar as petrol rises Sh12.93 and kerosene Sh28.49

Kenyan households and businesses are bracing for a fresh wave of cost-of-living pressure after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced sharp increases in fuel prices, with a litre of super petrol rising by Sh12.93, diesel by Sh9.90 and kerosene by Sh28.49.

The new prices take effect at midnight, raising transport and household energy costs while threatening to push up the prices of food and other essential commodities.

In Nairobi, the maximum retail price of super petrol will rise from Sh214.03 to Sh226.96 per litre, while diesel increases from Sh217.86 to Sh227.76. Kerosene will record the steepest increase, climbing from Sh191.38 to Sh219.87 per litre.

The latest review comes amid escalating conflict in the Middle East that has disrupted international petroleum supply chains, driven up import costs and tightened the availability of refined fuel products.

EPRA Director-General Edward Mwirigi Kinyua said the increases reflect the weighted average cost of imported refined petroleum products during the latest pricing period.

The higher prices are likely to have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly for low-income households, motorists, public transport operators and businesses that depend heavily on diesel-powered freight and machinery.

Kerosene-dependent households will face an especially heavy burden because of the sharp increase in the price of the fuel commonly used for cooking and lighting in some homes.

Middle East conflict drives up import costs

According to the regulator, Kenya’s petroleum supply situation has been complicated by disruptions along key international shipping routes and damage to critical oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

On July 20, 2026, rebels declared an embargo on Saudi-linked shipping lines, prompting marine petroleum tanker operators to avoid the Bab al-Mandab Strait along the Red Sea.

The disruption followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the year, forcing international suppliers to seek alternative cargoes from markets in the Far East, including South Korea and Singapore, as well as Europe, to meet Kenya’s supply requirements.

The situation deteriorated further in September after attacks damaged multiple pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a major route transporting crude oil to refineries on the country’s western side.

EPRA also cited diesel export restrictions by the United States and Russia as additional factors contributing to tighter supplies and higher international prices.

The combined disruptions have increased the cost of sourcing and delivering petroleum products to Kenya, which relies on imported refined fuel to meet its domestic requirements.

International prices hit decade-high levels

The regulator said international prices of refined petroleum products reached their highest levels in more than a decade in September 2026.

The free-on-board price of super petrol rose from $686.53 per metric tonne on February 28, 2026, when the crisis escalated, to an average of $1,300.65 per metric tonne in September.

Diesel increased from $637.76 to $1,215.83 per metric tonne over the same period, while Jet A-1 and kerosene rose from $681.20 to $1,253.50 per metric tonne.

The increases represent rises of 89.45 per cent for super petrol, 90.64 per cent for diesel and 84.01 per cent for Jet A-1 and kerosene.

According to EPRA, the price increases translated into additional landed costs of Sh59.36 per litre for super petrol, Sh61.80 for diesel and Sh59.57 for Jet A-1 and kerosene.

The average landed cost of imported super petrol rose by 11.81 per cent, from $874.26 per cubic metre in August to $977.55 in September.

Diesel’s landed cost increased by 11.32 per cent, from $957.05 to $1,065.38 per cubic metre, while kerosene rose by 9.41 per cent, from $1,003.87 to $1,098.31 over the same period.

Government-to-government deal cushions consumers

Despite the surge in international prices, the government says its government-to-government (G-to-G) petroleum supply arrangement continues to cushion consumers against escalating shipping costs and premiums.

Under the framework, freight and premium charges are fixed at $84 per metric tonne for super petrol, $78 for diesel and $97 for Jet A-1 and kerosene.

These translate to Sh8.16 per litre for petrol, Sh8.56 for diesel and Sh9.97 for Jet A-1 and kerosene.

EPRA said freight and premium charges in the spot market have climbed to approximately $250 per metric tonne, equivalent to Sh26.72 per litre.

The arrangement therefore shields Kenyan consumers from some of the additional costs they would otherwise incur if petroleum products were procured under prevailing spot-market conditions.

The government has also maintained a reduction in Value Added Tax (VAT) on super petrol, diesel and kerosene from 16 per cent to eight per cent, a measure introduced on April 15, 2026, and extended to January 14, 2027.

The tax reduction is intended to moderate the impact of rising international prices on domestic pump prices.

The government has also relied on petroleum price stabilisation measures to limit the impact of international market volatility on consumers.

EPRA said Sh29.4 billion was utilised through the stabilisation programme during the 2025/26 financial year, with Sh24.3 billion applied between April and June 2026.

The government intends to continue strengthening the Petroleum Development Levy Fund to sustain the programme as international prices remain elevated.

The latest price review also took into account the risk of a widening price difference between kerosene and motor fuels, which the regulator warned could encourage the adulteration of petroleum products.

Kerosene has recorded the largest absolute increase in the latest review, narrowing the gap between its price and those of petrol and diesel.

The latest increases highlight Kenya’s exposure to international oil-market shocks and the vulnerability of its domestic economy to disruptions in global supply chains.

Higher fuel prices typically raise the cost of transporting agricultural produce, manufacturing goods and distributing essential commodities, potentially placing additional pressure on consumers and businesses.

Public transport operators may also face higher operating costs, increasing the likelihood of fare adjustments if the price increases persist.

The government says it is exploring alternative approaches to strengthen energy security and reduce exposure to international price volatility.

EPRA pointed to major investments in the petroleum sector, including the recently commissioned Dangote East Africa Oil Refinery, as part of the broader effort to improve regional fuel supply resilience.

However, the immediate challenge remains containing the economic impact of the latest increases as households and businesses contend with higher energy and transport costs.

With international petroleum prices still under pressure, the effectiveness of government subsidies, tax relief and supply arrangements will remain central to efforts to shield consumers from further increases at the pump.