Don’t worry, petrol isn’t going up by R4 in November, but it’s not good news either

Ask AI 2minPetrol and diesel are set for significant increases in October.

While very early projections had pointed to potential petrol price increases of more than R4.50 in November, the latest numbers paint a far less severe picture for next month – but it’s not rosy either.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund shows far smaller under-recoveries for all fuel types, and according to our calculations, South Africans are likely to see a petrol price increase of around R1.80 per litre in November, while diesel is projected to rise by about R1.00.

These projections are based on the assumption that the rand and international oil prices remain at their current levels between now and the end of October, with the most recent daily petrol under-recoveries of between 55 cents and R1.50 gradually eroding the current accumulated monthly average of R2.73.

Nonetheless, these predicted fuel price increases will take petrol and diesel to new record highs, adding even more pressure to already overstretched consumers.

95-octane unleaded petrol already costs R29.38 at the coast and R30.25 in Gauteng, following a R3.33 increase at the beginning of this month. Diesel rose by between R2.84 and R3.24, pushing projected retail prices, which vary between outlets, to between R33 and R35.

The fuel price crisis has led to widespread calls for the government to reintroduce the fuel tax relief that was temporarily implemented earlier this year, with organisations including the ANC, ATM and Fedusa urging Treasury to act. However, economists have warned that there are compelling reasons why the government may be reluctant to repeat the earlier intervention – read more here.

There could nevertheless be some relief on the horizon. President Cyril Ramaphosa said last week that the government was considering ways to ease the fuel price burden, although he stressed the need to remain fiscally cautious.

Meanwhile, Transport Minister Barbara Creecy has ruled out an increase in the Road Accident Fund (RAF) fuel levy during her tenure, following reports that the fund wanted it raised from R2.25 to R3 per litre.

Speaking to eNCA, Creecy said motorists were already under enough financial pressure and argued that the focus should instead be on addressing longstanding mismanagement at the RAF.