The Senate races most likely to flip less than a month from Election Day

(The Hill) — The race for control of the Senate is heating up, with forecasters increasingly moving races in the Democrats’ direction less than a month out from the election.

Last week, nonpartisan election forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska and South Carolina in Democrats’ favor.

President Donald Trump’s tanking approval ratings and high costs associated with the war in Iran and the tariff war with Canada are making it difficult for Republicans to navigate the persistent headwinds, though some candidates have broken with the president on certain issues as they differentiate themselves from the White House and national party.

And while Democrats see a favorable political environment, it’s not guaranteed that it will be enough to push them into majority-making territory.

Here’s a look at the Senate races most likely to flip less than one month out:

The Tar Heel State has often served as Democrats’ metaphorical “Lucy and the football,” disappointing the party time and again at the presidential and Senate level, though they’ve fared better in gubernatorial races.

But the party notched a strong recruit in former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), with recent polling showing him leading former Republican National Committee (RNC) chair Michael Whatley anywhere from single to double digits.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, has pulled money from the race; the Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic leadership has as well, though to a lesser extent. However, that doesn’t mean either group has withdrawn entirely from the race financially.

The Last Frontier has also served as an unexpected bright spot for Democrats thanks to another strong recruit in former Rep. Mary Peltola (D).

The state is generally reliably Republican, with Trump winning the state by 13 points in 2024. However, Sabato’s Crystal Ball felt encouraged to move it into the “lean Democrat” category — Cook Political Report rates it as a “toss up” — given several recent surveys from strong pollsters.

Another notable sign is the fact that Vice President JD Vance has campaigned in the Last Frontier, while the president is expected to be there this week. Still, Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote on Tuesday in an analysis that Sullivan is a tough incumbent to beat.

“Though Alaska is, demographically, one of the youngest states, both the AARP poll and the more recent NYT poll show Sullivan carrying voters older than 45,” they wrote. “A couple of other pollsters have also shown a closer race: a late September poll from Quantus Insights had the race tied, while a couple of other conservative pollsters had Sullivan narrowly leading.”

Peltola also came under scrutiny after The New York Times reported last month about the former congresswoman’s allegedly abusive behavior towards staff — accusations her campaign has denied while noting that she has “sometimes struggled to deal with her grief” from losing her husband and mother. It’s unclear from polling if that’s hurt her Senate bid against Sullivan.

Like many of the competitive Senate races being closely watched next month, the Ohio Senate is regularly polling within the margin of error. Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running in a special election to fill the remainder of Vance’s seat in the Senate against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), one of the rare Democrats who has won statewide in the Buckeye State.

Ohio has trended away from Democrats in recent cycles, so much so that it wasn’t even considered one of the six swing states during the 2024 presidential election. And Brown’s loss to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) that same cycle was another indicator of Ohio’s rightward shift.

As some news outlets like the Times have noted, some voters still think Brown is the sitting senator while Husted is lesser known to voters. If Ohio swings back toward Democrats next month, it would offer one of the first real signs that Democrats could be in for a very good night — and that they may be able to reverse some of their losses moving into the next election cycle.

Democrats have long tried to oust Sen. Susan Collins (R) in past elections, but the GOP senator has proved a formidable candidate and is the only Senate Republican to represent a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.

Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson (D) replaced populist Graham Platner as Democrats’ nominee to take on Collins in the Pine Tree State after numerous scandals forced Platner out of the race.

Jackson and Democrats broadly have sought to hit Collins specifically over her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was among the majority in ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. The issue is nuanced for the GOP senator who supports access to abortion and has supported legislation aimed at codifying federal abortion access.

Democrats have also hit Collins over a recent ProPublica investigation, which alleged that GOP senator was involved in a pay-to-play scheme aiming at garnering contributions in exchange for government contracts to the defense contractor Navatek. Collins and her campaign have vehemently denied the allegations, calling it a “partisan hit” and “offensive” and pointing out that the allegations came from a convicted felon.

It’s unclear how much the controversy will electorally impact Collins as polling in the race shows a tight contest, and the GOP senator has proved she can win in tough races.

Michigan is seen as one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities this cycle with Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2024, making him a formidable recruit in the 2026 cycle.

Republicans were eager to have former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed as their Democratic opponent instead of the more centrist Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), seeing him as too far left for the swing state.

Yet, Rogers has increasingly staked positions breaking with the Trump administration, such as calling for the war in Iran to end and calling for the tariff war with Canada to be over. He’s not the only Senate Republican candidate to do that this cycle, though the fact that he’s called on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to make a deal with Canada underscores the urgency many GOP challengers are feeling to turn things around before next month.

The Lone Star State has been another figurative “Lucy and the football” for Democrats after former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018, later losing by a wider margin against Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in the 2022 governor’s race.

Trump’s travel to Texas — including his quips calling Republican Ken Paxton a “little controversial” and a “pain in the a–” — coupled with different leaked audio clips of Paxton trickling out last week have shown an increasingly volatile race. The president has even encouraged Paxton to debate Democrat James Talarico.

At the same time, Republicans have a clear edge in spending in Texas, which is expensive state given its multiple media markets. The ad-tracking firm AdImpact reported on Friday that Republicans had spent more than $51 million alone in future ad buys in the state compared to Democrats, who had committed nearly $5 million.

If Democrats flip the Iowa Senate seat in November, it likely indicates there’ll be a wave election. Handicapper Inside Elections rates the race as a “tilt Republican,” though Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have moved it slightly further toward the Democrats and have called it a “toss up” in recent months.

Republicans have a strong recruit in Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), and the Hawkeye State hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since former Sen. Tom Harkin’s (D) reelection in 2008. The state went for Trump by 13 points in 2024. Recent polling also has Hinson narrowly leading.

But forecasters have noted that the price of fertilizer and gas are concerns in the state, and Hinson has also gone so far as to call for Trump to end the war in Iran. AdImpact also noted that Iowa Democrats have narrowly hold an edge there in future ad reservations — only one of eight competitive Senate races where that’s the case.

The Sunflower State’s Senate race turned into an unexpected marquee contest this cycle, with Democrat Adam Hamilton notching several high-profile endorsements, including from two former Republican governors. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1932, meaning Hamilton faces steep odds in toppling Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

Marshall has received scrutiny more recently over his handling of taxpayer funds and for suing hundreds of patients over medical debt, while Hamilton has received scrutiny over his handling of a child sex abuse scandal at his church.

An attorney for Marshall told MS NOW and the Kansas Reflector that the official office and campaign side both comply with campaign finance rules and Senate ethics rules. Rogers has also defended his decision to sue medical patients, saying he acted appropriately.

Hamilton told the Kansas Reflector he would have handled the initial reports of abuse, which were ultimately reported to officials, differently but also said that “there was no attempt at a cover-up” during the church’s investigation.

“Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and we’d still be surprised if that streak ends this year,” Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote last month, while noting they were shifting the race slightly toward Democrats.

The Granite State serves as Republicans’ second-best pickup opportunity should they have a better-than-expected Election Day. The GOP notched a strong recruit in former Sen. John E. Sununu, whose last name is a political dynasty in the state, and he’ll be running on the same ballot as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who’s expected to win reelection next month.

But Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor suggested Trump’s underwater approval ratings in the state, current polling on the race and an expectation that Sununu could underperform Ayotte given how voters weigh federal and statewide races make Pappas the favorite right now.

“This race could still end up being closer than it should be given the national environment,” Taylor wrote. “Democratic ads hitting Sununu for his own work for a lobbying firm seem to have penetrated, but Pappas — who weathered a barrage of attack ads over the summer for his now-husband’s lobbying work for Amazon — also has work to do in the closing weeks to rally voters who aren’t fans of the Democratic Party either.”

The Senate races in Minnesota, South Carolina, Nebraska and Georgia are also being closely watched by both parties as the races take the temperature of electorates in more Democratic- and Republican-leaning states.

None of these states are expected to flip in November given their more partisan leanings, though upsets in any of these races would offer a telltale sign of a good night for one of the parties or another sleeper race observers missed.