CNBC Daily Open: Trump’s Russian roulette

It's a massive political gamble ahead of the midterms.

President Trump's announcement of a diesel deal with Russia has stunned the global community. And now, questions are being asked about whether Moscow can supply the U.S. with enough diesel for the agreement to be felt at the pump.

It's a risk, but so far oil is down and futures are up.

Investors are trying to price oil after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine.

But there's widespread confusion over the supposed agreement. Firstly, Ukraine reacted with surprise, saying the first they heard of the move was Trump's Truth Social post. Secondly, Moscow struck a power plant just hours after the announcement, Zelenskyy

In a note to CNBC, Neil Atkinson, former head of the Oil Division at the International Energy Agency, says, "Where the volumes to supply the Trump deal come from is a mystery, unless it comes from domestic supply, which will cripple the Russian economy."

It's creating uncertainty, but oil prices are lower in early trade. Brent crude is still holding above $103 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are hovering around $90 a barrel.

Another conflict is also drawing Trump's attention.

He has said he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its retaliation against Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen after a deadly attack on Riyadh's King Khalid Airport.

The attack has caused huge disruption to air travel and triggered a wave of cancellations for events taking place in the Saudi capital this week, with the World Petroleum Congress this week most directly impacted. The country is due to host the Future Investment Initiative on Oct. 26-29.

U.S. futures are higher in early trade on Monday, as investors look .

Reporting season will ramp up in earnest this week with the big banks, with Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo all expected to post results this week.

Key inflation data is also due out this week, with the September consumer and producer price indexes due out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings are under way in Bangkok.CNBC will be on the ground, speaking with finance ministers, central bank governors and business leaders as the global outlook buckles under geopolitical shocks, mounting public debt and AI's threat to jobs.Two dates to watch: the IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report on Tuesday, and investors will be listening closely when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joins a conversation on Friday.

— Leonie Kidd. Anniek Bao contributed to this newsletter.

TikTok CEO sees major scientific breakthroughs from AI within three years

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew expects artificial intelligence to drive major scientific breakthroughs within the next three years, transforming a broad range of sectors.

"In the next two to three years, we're going to have a real scientific breakthrough: physics, biotech, chemistry, material science, because of AI. It's very, very, very possible," Chew said at the DBS Asia Future Forward Conference in Singapore on Monday.

Chew's remarks come as ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent, expands its artificial intelligence research beyond consumer applications. In April, the company's Seed research team unveiled Protenix-v2, an AI model focused on biomolecular structure prediction and design, with potential applications in drug discovery.