Alex Kane: Let me tell you when a border poll will be called

Share current article via FacebookShare current article via PinterestShare current article via TwitterShare current article via LinkedInAlex KaneAlex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

ExpandThe power to hold a border poll is in the hands of Secretary of State Chris Bryant By Alex KaneSeptember 16, 2026 at 6:00am BSTTO all intents and purposes, the border poll issue wasn’t really taken all that seriously between 1998 and 2015.

Fair enough, the SDLP didn’t abandon the new Ireland language of John Hume, and Sinn Féin threw out random dates for both the poll and unity in much the same way that buns are thrown to placate a bear.

Yet both parties accepted that a poll was probably a long, long way down the road.

But, as Harold McMillan noted over 60 years ago, it is “events, dear boy, events” – usually unexpected – which change the dynamics of a debate.

In terms of the border poll debate there were four specific events which changed the dynamics. Not, perhaps, to the extent of guaranteeing a united Ireland any time soon, but certainly making it harder to ignore the criteria – or lack of them – for the initial poll.

The Brexit referendum in 2016 turned UK politics upside down. It also turned the UK-Irish relationship upside down.

The Yes victory didn’t require unionist votes in Northern Ireland to get it over the line, but it did leave unionists in a difficult position; not least when it became clear that NI would be a bargaining chip in EU-UK negotiations, with unionists realising their interests were not a priority for successive British governments.

The 2017 Assembly election – in which the seats were reduced from 108 to 90 – was a political and psychological body-blow for unionism.

For the first time in NI’s history, unionism did not represent an overall majority in a parliament or assembly, winning 40 of the 90 seats on a 46% share of the vote.

Not a catastrophic result perhaps – the total unionist seats were more than the nationalist seats – but certainly bad enough for nationalism and others to note that maybe, after all, unionism wouldn’t have a bankable majority if a border poll was called.

Unionists took some comfort a month later when Theresa May, whose general election delivered a much worse outcome than expected for the Conservatives, found herself in need of the votes of the DUP’s 10 MPs.

The DUP had a good hand to play, yet squandered all their cards by throwing their lot in with the hard Brexiteers of the ERG, taking Boris Johnson on trust to support them after he became PM and, stupidly, cutting off all links with nationalism on both sides of the border.

At every turn they were shafted; most spectacularly and damagingly when Rishi Sunak – on the back of a whopping parliamentary majority – pushed through the Framework Agreement and delivered NI into what Jim Allister described as colony status within the EU.

Another huge blow landed in the 2022 Assembly election, when unionism lost more votes and seats (though it still had more MLAs than nationalism).

Crucially, though, Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party and with it claimed the title of First Minister.

You can say what you like about the co-equal status of the first and deputy first roles, but in psychological/propaganda terms ‘first’ carries a lot more weight than deputy.

Enough weight, in other words, to re-emphasise the point about how bankable a pro-union majority in a border poll is.

Those four events – along with other polls, elections and developments – explain why nationalism, on both sides of the border, is more focussed on a poll than it was in the pre-2015 period.

It doesn’t take victory for granted, but it does believe that the outcome could be much closer than anyone now imagines.

That said, there is a border poll reality which has to be faced. If Britain wants one and Ireland doesn’t, there won’t be one. If Ireland wants it and Britain doesn’t, there won’t be one.

If both agree to have one, then game on. It will be a joint decision. That has always been the reality. And that remains the reality.

The wording of the Good Friday Agreement is deliberately vague. Yet one thing seems clear to me: it will not be a Secretary of State and UK government which makes a unilateral decision. That way spells disaster.

Both governments will be talking and game-planning. It is not in the interests of either to make a dog’s dinner of an eventual poll, for both know that violence is often the outcome when things go wrong between unionism and nationalism.

And there certainly won’t be a poll in advance of both governments agreeing and then publishing the criteria for triggering the poll.

So, where we are now is maybe best described as a form of limbo. There is no bankable winner and nor is there a bankable loser.

Polls and elections can be interpreted to suit existing party tastes, yet the fact remains that there is a considerable pool of the persuadable who will only get involved when they know the full parameters of the debate and can then gauge how likely it is that their needs, interests and identity will be protected beyond the present status quo.

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