If I Were In Tinubu’s Shoes, I Would Resign, Go Back To School And Learn Economics — Adewole Adebayo

Adewole Adebayo, the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) for the 2027 election, has criticised the Federal Government’s approach to petrol price regulation, arguing that efforts to moderate pump prices will have little impact unless the underlying costs of producing and supplying fuel are also addressed.

Adebayo made his position known during an interview with Channels Television, where he discussed the government’s fuel price modulation policy and outlined what he would do differently if elected president.

The SDP presidential hopeful argued that the government’s current approach places too much emphasis on regulating the margins earned by fuel marketers while leaving the major cost components of petrol pricing largely untouched. According to him, a meaningful reduction in pump prices requires direct intervention in the cost structure of the petroleum industry, particularly the price and availability of crude oil supplied to domestic refineries.

During the interview, Adebayo was asked about the new fuel price modulation policy and the possibility of petrol prices exceeding ₦1,350 per litre. Responding to the question, he questioned the economic reasoning behind the government’s approach and suggested that the administration needed to reconsider its policy decisions.

He said, “If I were in their shoes, I hope not to be in their shoes. If I were in their shoes, I would resign and go back to school and learn economics properly so that I don’t cause harm to the government and to the people. Why I say so is this.”

The politician’s remarks reflected his dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of fuel pricing and his belief that the existing policy framework does not adequately address the factors responsible for the high cost of petrol in Nigeria.

Adebayo Questions the Logic Behind Fuel Price Modulation

Explaining his objections, Adebayo maintained that the government could not effectively influence the retail price of petrol without addressing the expenses incurred throughout the supply chain.

He argued that restricting the amount marketers can earn, without reducing the costs they face when purchasing and distributing petroleum products, would not necessarily produce a significant decline in prices at filling stations.

In his assessment, the policy risks treating the symptoms of high petrol prices rather than addressing the underlying causes.

“Look at a very simple matter. You cannot do price modulation without doing cost modulation. Because if you don’t do cost modulation, you are saying, in essence, that there is price gouging. That is to say, too much profit is being made by the marketers,” he said.

Adebayo’s argument centred on the relationship between the cost of obtaining petroleum products and the final amount consumers pay at the pump. He maintained that if the government believes marketers are charging excessive margins, it should establish the basis for that position rather than focus exclusively on the final selling price.

However, he also suggested that the major expenses associated with producing and supplying petrol deserved greater attention than the comparatively small margins earned by marketers.

According to him, the government’s policy does not adequately explain how prices can be brought down when the principal costs involved in obtaining and refining crude oil remain high.

He therefore called for a broader examination of the petroleum pricing system, arguing that interventions should target the factors that contribute most significantly to the final cost of petrol.

Crude Oil Costs at the Centre of the Debate

Adebayo identified crude oil as one of the most significant components of petrol production costs and questioned why the government was not doing more to make the commodity available to domestic refiners on terms that could support lower pump prices.

He argued that the government appeared to be concentrating on marketing margins while leaving other major cost considerations, including the price of crude oil and its associated expenses, largely outside the scope of its intervention.

According to the SDP candidate, regulating the amount marketers earn cannot deliver the desired results if refiners continue to face substantial costs when sourcing crude oil and processing it into petroleum products.

He questioned why the government was not placing greater emphasis on domestic crude supply arrangements and cost-control measures that could enable refineries operating in Nigeria to produce petrol at lower prices.

For Adebayo, the central issue is whether domestic refining can be supported through policies that reduce production expenses rather than relying primarily on measures intended to influence the final selling price.

He maintained that the availability of crude oil at more favourable rates could help reduce the financial burden on refiners and create room for cheaper petroleum products.

The proposal also raises broader questions about the relationship between crude oil production, domestic refining capacity and the price Nigerians pay for fuel. Although local refining can reduce dependence on imported finished petroleum products, the final pump price is still influenced by several factors, including crude acquisition costs, refining expenses, transportation, financing, distribution and applicable taxes.

Adebayo’s argument is that government policy should pay greater attention to these cost components if the objective is to achieve a substantial and sustainable reduction in petrol prices.

Dangote, BUA and Other Refiners Mentioned

In outlining his position, Adebayo referred to domestic refining companies, including Dangote, BUA and Watersmith, arguing that their commercial priorities would naturally include the need to recover expenses and earn profits.

He suggested that refiners would make decisions based on their individual operating costs and business objectives rather than automatically prioritising affordability for Nigerian consumers.

According to him, the government’s responsibility should therefore include creating conditions under which domestic refiners can obtain essential inputs at lower costs while still operating commercially.

His comments reflected the distinction between the interests of businesses operating in the petroleum industry and the government’s responsibility to address the economic pressures facing households and other fuel consumers.

Refiners must account for the costs of crude oil, processing, infrastructure, financing and other operational requirements when determining the prices at which they sell petroleum products. Those expenses can affect the prices ultimately charged by marketers and, consequently, the amount consumers pay at filling stations.

Adebayo’s proposed intervention would involve the government taking a more active role in determining the conditions under which crude oil is supplied to domestic refineries.

Rather than concentrating mainly on the margins earned by marketers, he argued that the administration should consider whether adjustments to crude oil supply arrangements and taxation could lower the overall cost of petrol production.

Such a policy, in his view, would offer a more direct route to reducing prices than focusing on the final stage of the distribution chain.

Proposal to Allocate 250,000 Barrels of Crude Oil to Local Refineries

As part of his proposed solution, Adebayo called on the Federal Government to reserve 250,000 barrels of crude oil for refineries operating within Nigeria.

Under the arrangement he advocated, the crude would be allocated to domestic refiners for processing, while taxation on refiners would be removed to reduce the expenses associated with producing petroleum products.

He argued that supplying crude oil under more favourable conditions and eliminating the relevant tax burden could give domestic refiners greater flexibility to lower the prices at which they sell petrol.

The proposal is intended to reduce production costs at an earlier stage of the supply chain instead of attempting to influence prices after the product has already been refined and supplied to marketers.

Adebayo believes that the savings generated by such an arrangement could translate into lower pump prices for Nigerians, particularly at a time when the cost of transportation, food distribution and other essential activities is affected by expensive fuel.

He estimated that implementing the proposal could bring the price of petrol down to approximately ₦550 per litre.

However, the figure represents Adebayo’s projected outcome rather than a confirmed market price. Achieving such a reduction would depend on several factors, including the terms under which crude oil is allocated, the applicable tax arrangements, refinery operating costs, distribution expenses and the extent to which any savings are passed on to consumers.

The proposal would also require a clear framework for determining how the crude oil allocation would be managed, which refineries would qualify and how compliance with the arrangement would be monitored.

Nevertheless, Adebayo presented the measure as a possible way for the government to influence the cost of petrol without relying solely on restrictions affecting marketers.

Debate Over the Government’s Role in Petrol Pricing

Adebayo’s intervention comes amid continuing public concern about petrol prices and their effects on household budgets, businesses and the wider Nigerian economy.

Fuel prices have significant implications for transportation and the movement of goods, meaning increases can place additional pressure on the cost of living. Businesses that rely on road transport or fuel-powered equipment may also face higher operating expenses when petroleum products become more expensive.

These pressures have kept fuel pricing among the major economic issues facing the government, particularly as Nigerians look for measures that can ease the cost of daily living.

The debate also highlights competing views about the extent to which government intervention should influence petroleum prices in a market-oriented system.

Adebayo’s position is that the government should focus more directly on the costs that determine the final price of petrol, particularly the price and availability of crude oil for domestic refining.

His proposal would require the authorities to consider how crude supply arrangements and tax policies could be adjusted to support lower production costs.

At the same time, any such intervention would need to account for the commercial realities of refining, the financial obligations of operators and the potential consequences for government revenue.

The relationship between crude oil prices and retail petrol prices is not determined by a single factor. Even where crude is available domestically, refiners must still cover the costs of processing, operations, financing and distribution. Tax changes and adjustments to crude supply terms could affect those costs, but the final impact on pump prices would depend on the specific arrangements introduced.

Consequently, the feasibility of achieving the ₦550-per-litre price projected by Adebayo would require a detailed assessment of the costs involved and the mechanisms through which savings would reach consumers.

Adebayo Outlines What He Would Do Differently as President

Beyond criticising the current policy, Adebayo used the interview to explain how his approach to fuel pricing would differ if he occupied the presidency.

His comments suggested that he would place greater emphasis on identifying the largest contributors to petrol costs before introducing measures designed to regulate prices.

He argued that the government should not expect to achieve lower pump prices simply by controlling a limited portion of the supply chain while leaving more substantial expenses unaddressed.

Instead, his preferred approach would involve intervening in crude oil supply arrangements, reducing the tax burden on domestic refiners and creating conditions that could enable them to sell petroleum products more cheaply.

His remarks also underscored his broader criticism of the administration’s economic decision-making, which he believes should be guided by a clearer understanding of how costs accumulate across the petroleum industry.

By advocating the allocation of 250,000 barrels of crude oil to local refiners, Adebayo presented a specific policy alternative to the government’s fuel price modulation approach.

Whether the proposal could deliver the projected reduction would depend on its implementation and the response of the various businesses involved in refining and distributing petroleum products.

Still, the SDP candidate maintained that addressing the underlying cost structure was essential to any serious attempt to make petrol more affordable.

Fuel Affordability Remains a Major Economic Concern

The exchange has brought renewed attention to the question of how Nigeria can balance the commercial interests of petroleum businesses with the need to make fuel affordable for consumers.

For many households and businesses, the price of petrol influences a wide range of everyday expenses, from commuting and goods transportation to the cost of providing services.

This makes the effectiveness of fuel pricing policies an important consideration in broader discussions about economic management and the government’s response to the cost-of-living pressures experienced by Nigerians.

Adebayo’s argument is that reducing the cost of crude oil supplied to domestic refineries and easing the associated tax burden could provide a foundation for lower petrol prices.

His criticism of the current approach rests on the belief that price regulation alone is insufficient when the underlying costs of production and supply remain high.

By proposing a dedicated crude oil allocation for local refineries, he has called for a policy shift that would focus on reducing expenses earlier in the petroleum value chain.

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