Pakistan staring at 22 percent water shortfall in Rabi season

ISLAMABAD  –  Pakistan is staring at a 22 percent water shortfall during the ongoing Rabi 2026-27 season, with availability estimated at just 29.183 MAF.

The Indus River System Authority’s Advisory Committee (IAC), chaired by Chairman IRSA Amjad Saeed, on Tuesday approved the anticipated water availability for Rabi season from October 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027. The meeting was attended by IRSA members and all stakeholders. Under the Water Accord 1991, IRSA determines water availability and provincial shares twice a year for Kharif (April 1 – Sept 30) and Rabi (Oct 1 – March 31).

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The IAC reviewed the availability as recommended by IRSA Technical Committee and approved likely rim-station inflows of 21.268 MAF, calculated through the WAA-Tool jointly developed by CSIRO Australia, UBC Watershed Model and stakeholders, along with 4% and 0% conveyance losses for Indus and Jhelum-Chenab zones. Based on agreed inflows, overall system shortage was worked out at 22 percent, which will be periodically reviewed. Since Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are exempted from cuts, the shortage will be distributed between Punjab and Sindh. The anticipated provincial withdrawals of 29.183 MAF are slightly higher than the 10-year average of 28.73 MAF. Province-wise, Punjab will get 15.564 MAF, Sindh 11.748 MAF, KP (CRBC) 0.701 MAF and Balochistan 1.171 MAF.

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The IAC also reviewed Kharif 2026, noting actual inflows of 95.44 MAF were 8% less than anticipated, 7% below the 10-year average and 22% less than last year. During Late Kharif, besides supplies under Para-2 of the Accord, Punjab and Sindh utilized 0.077 MAF and 1.262 MAF respectively as flood supplies under Para-4. Provincial utilization during Kharif 2026 (Apr-Sep) remained 11%, 7%, 28% and 58% less than Accord shares for Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan respectively.

Total storage on Sept 30, 2026 was 9.343 MAF, less than anticipated 12.014 MAF, 10-year average of 9.938 MAF and last year’s 13.214 MAF. Escapage downstream Kotri was 10.40 MAF against anticipated 13.05 MAF.

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The IAC urged early completion of WAPDA’s T4 LLO and T5 HPP projects, noting delays were causing shortages, and approved closure of Chashma Barrage from Dec 26, 2026 to Jan 14, 2027 in sync with provincial canal closure programs.

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