By: Sarah Baafi
Economist and Policy Analyst, Peter Terkper, has warned that escalating tensions between Iran and Israel could have broader global economic consequences, with potential gains for gold-producing countries like Ghana.
Speaking on GBC’s Talking Point show, Dr. Terkper said geopolitical conflicts often trigger shifts in global commodity markets, particularly driving up demand for gold as investors seek safe-haven assets.
According to him, the net economic effect of the Iran–Israel tensions may not significantly influence Ghana’s oil sector due to the country’s relatively low refining capacity, but the gold sector could see noticeable gains.
“When you flip the coin, we also export some crude oil, that should benefit us. But the volumes we produce less than about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day are insignificant relative to our national consumption,” he explained.
Dr. Terkper noted that while global oil market shocks typically affect many economies, Ghana’s limited production levels mean the country may not experience a substantial advantage from rising crude oil prices.
However, he stressed that Ghana could benefit indirectly through increased global demand for gold, which tends to rise during periods of geopolitical instability.
Beyond commodity markets, the economist also called for stronger regional economic cooperation to reduce reliance on foreign currencies, particularly the United States dollar, in trade.
He argued that African countries should explore trading within regional currencies to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves and stabilize their economies.
“When we want to trade among ourselves, we should be looking at how to reduce dependence on foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, so that we can trade within currencies in our region. That will help reduce pressure on forex and stabilize our reserves,” he said.
Dr. Terkper also raised concerns about the condition of Ghana’s oil refining infrastructure, particularly the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), noting that many of its facilities have become obsolete.
He warned that without major upgrades to modernize the refinery and increase its processing capacity, Ghana could continue to suffer production losses.
“A lot of the equipment is obsolete. Significant changes are needed to improve productivity and refine larger volumes. Otherwise, production losses could worsen, and it might even become more beneficial for us to export crude oil rather than refine it locally,” he stated.
Dr. Terkper emphasized that addressing the refinery’s structural challenges would require long-term planning and investment to transform the country’s energy sector and improve efficiency.
The economist’s remarks come amid growing international concern about the economic ripple effects of tensions in the Middle East, a region central to global energy supply.
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