A senior analyst at S&P Global Ratings said that Nigeria’s reform drive has been encouraging, adding that the reforms introduced by Bola Tinubu are expected to sustain the country’s economic growth this year.
The analyst among others made this observation at a webinar hosted by S&P Global Ratings and themed ‘Africa’s 2026 Credit Cycle Dynamics’.
Several analysts said the event signalled a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the African continent.
The 60-minute session brought together a panel of the firm’s leading analysts to provide their expert outlook on the shifting credit landscape across the African continent. As economies adjust to new global financial conditions, the discussion focused on the key factors set to define the 2026 credit cycle.
While several sovereigns are emerging from the shadows of debt restructuring with upgraded credit profiles, the agency noted that internal reforms in the continent’s largest economy, Nigeria, remain the focal point of regional stability.
“The general reform momentum in Nigeria has been positive, and we expect to witness continued economic growth this year under President Bola Tinubu’s reforms,” stated a senior analyst during the session. “However, the currency remains volatile following recent fluctuations, and we are watching the situation closely as GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) support may be less forthcoming moving forward.”
S&P highlighted that Nigeria has gained significant traction through its ongoing IMF-supported programme. The agency forecasts a real GDP growth average of 3.7 per cent for the 2025–2026 period, bolstered by a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” foreign exchange model and a narrowing gap between official and parallel market rates. Despite these gains, the agency warned that the banking sector remains sensitive. With nearly 50 per cent of loans denominated in foreign currency, any sharp naira depreciation continues to pose a risk to asset quality.
The webinar shifted focus to Southern and Eastern Africa, where a clear divergence is appearing between countries successfully exiting debt restructuring and those hitting new hurdles.
“Zambia is an improving story as it emerges from restructuring, bolstered by strong performance in commodities like gold and copper,” the agency noted, following an upgrade for Ghana late last year.
In contrast, Ethiopia’s path remains stalled. “Ethiopia has hit some roadblocks. Although they were nearing a deal on bond restructuring, it was rejected by the creditor committee, forcing them to renegotiate,” the analysts explained. “Despite this, Ethiopia’s macro outlook is improving.”
S&P identified Morocco as the standout in Francophone Africa, citing “proactive government measures” that led to its return to investment-grade status (BBB-) in late 2025. Kenya was described as a story of “reasonable improvement” on the external front, benefiting from lower oil prices and robust exports, though analysts cautioned that the nation remains “sensitive to energy price shifts”.
Finally, the agency addressed Mozambique, which has faced intense local currency pressure in the short term. “The medium-term horizon for Mozambique looks attractive as the major LNG project gains momentum. While short-term pressures remain, particularly in Rwanda, the outlook for Mozambique is strengthening.”
The session concluded with a stark reminder of the “debt wall” facing the continent. S&P warned that African governments face external debt repayments exceeding $90 bn in 2026. While global financing conditions are expected to remain benign as the US Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, S&P emphasised that the “Age of Agility” will require African sovereigns to maintain strict fiscal discipline to avoid the liquidity traps that defined the previous decade.
Beyond the regional outlooks, the webinar dissected the foundational pillars of the continent’s financial stability through a multi-sector lens. Key discussion points included a deep dive into the outlook for Sovereign Ratings as nations navigate persistent fiscal and funding pressures, alongside the new impetus for African banks to balance aggressive lending with robust risk management. Furthermore, the session analysed shifts in credit and financing conditions across the region and evaluated the health of the corporate investment cycle. Central to these dynamics is the evolving role of Multilateral Investment Institutions, which S&P identifies as critical anchors in the continent’s modern financial architecture.
Speakers from the S&P Global Ratings webinar included Director and Lead Analyst, Sovereign Ratings, Ravi Bhatia; Managing Director, Global Head of MLI Ratings, Alexander Ekbom; Associate Director, EMEA Sovereigns, Hugo Soubrier; Managing Director – Global Head of Islamic Finance and Sector Lead Banks Africa and Middle East, Mohamed Damak; Director and Lead Analyst, EMEA Banks, Regina Argenio; Associate Director, SSA Corporates, Munya Chawana; Associate Director, EMEA Sovereigns, Leon Bezuidenhout; and Tatiana Grineva, Director and Lead Analyst, Insurance Ratings. The session was moderated by Samira Mensah, Managing Director and Head of Africa Research and Analytics.
S&P Global Ratings is the world’s leading provider of independent credit risk research and benchmarks, offering credit opinions and insights that contribute to more transparent and efficient financial markets.
