A natural resource governance expert has outlined a five-point emergency strategy he believes can protect Ghana’s fuel market and wider economy from a worst-case scenario unfolding in the Middle East, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure are already pushing crude prices sharply higher.
Dr. Steve Manteaw said Ghana is exposed on multiple fronts and that waiting for the situation to worsen before acting would be a costly mistake. His proposals, set out in a policy commentary published Thursday, are directed at the government and the National Petroleum Authority (NPA).
His first recommendation is to build strategic fuel reserves urgently. Manteaw acknowledged that the NPA confirmed roughly five weeks of supply at the start of the conflict, but questioned whether Ghana has the physical storage capacity to hold the months-long buffer a prolonged crisis would require. Without deeper stockpiles, he warned, any sudden supply disruption could produce shortages at the pump within weeks.
Second, he called for temporary tax relief on petroleum products if global prices continue their current trajectory. Ghana’s pump price structure carries multiple levies and taxes, and even a partial suspension of some of those charges could provide meaningful relief to consumers and businesses already strained by the cost of living.
Third, he repeated his call to suspend the NPA’s directive banning selective fuel discounts by oil marketing companies, arguing the timing removes a competitive pricing mechanism at precisely the moment consumers need it most.
His fourth proposal involves the Petroleum Revenue Management Act’s Petroleum Stabilisation Fund. As the Middle East crisis drives crude prices higher, the fund will receive windfall revenues from Ghana’s oil operations. Manteaw said the government should consider recycling a portion of those windfalls to offset any revenue shortfall created by suspending petroleum taxes, maintaining fiscal balance while cushioning pump prices.
However, he attached a firm caution to that fourth proposal. Subsidising fuel prices too aggressively through the Stabilisation Fund risks making Ghana’s pump prices significantly cheaper than those in neighbouring countries, creating strong incentives for cross-border smuggling. “We should be mindful not to subsidise petroleum prices through the Stabilisation Fund, below a threshold that will trigger smuggling of petroleum products across our borders,” Manteaw said.
The Middle East conflict has already sent crude prices to multi-year highs. Analysts note that Ghana’s current exposure is asymmetric: higher oil prices raise import costs for refined petroleum while higher gold prices, simultaneously driven by safe-haven demand, raise export revenues, providing a partial natural hedge. Ghana’s gross international reserves currently stand at USD 13.8 billion, or 5.7 months of import cover.
Manteaw said the combination of proactive stockpiling, flexible taxation, competitive pricing, and disciplined use of stabilisation revenues represents Ghana’s best available toolkit for managing a crisis it cannot control but can prepare for.
