The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting that Ghana will end 2022 with an economic growth rate of 3.6 percent.
The IMF in its Economic Outlook Report expressed worry that countries like Ghana will be affected by happenings in other developed economies as growth in those countries are expected to contract.
The Bretton Wood institution warned that moves by Central Banks in developed countries to check inflation with further tightening will impact on economies like Ghana, as well as developments in Russia and Ukraine.
The projection by the IMF is slightly lower than 3.7 percent announced by the Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta in the revised Mid-Year Estimate presented to parliament on July 25 2022.
This was after the minister revised the end of 2022 growth rate.
The IMF in the World Economic Outlook Report, however forecast that economic growth in 2023 will slow to 2.8 percent and peak strongly in 2027, reaching 6.8 percent.
IMF’s Economic Outlook Report
The Economic Outlook Report, which was christened “Countering the Cost of Living” also warned that the worse is yet to come, warning that countries could face challenges.
“Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades”, the report said.
“The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic” it added.
Implications
Some economists say the projection by the IMF shows that, the Fund is also optimistic about the projected expansion for Ghana’s economy by the end of 2022.
It is expected that projected revenue by government could be achieved.
This may also have a positive impact of on Ghana’s debt to GDP ratio.
The Economic and Finance data released by the Bank of Ghana in October, 2022 puts the country debts at ₵402 billion.
The Debt to GDP ratio declined to 68 percent ending July 2022.
By this, some analysts have argued that the projected growth by the end of 2022 will impact on Ghana’s debt numbers.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana Economic and Financial data puts the total value of Ghana’s economy ending July 2022 at ₵591 billion.
Ghana’s Second quarter growth numbers
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows that Ghana’s economy expanded by 4.8 percent in the second quarter of this year, higher than the 3.4 percent recorded in the first quarter.
The appreciable growth rate was driven by Manufacturing 8.8 percent, Crops and Cocoa, 4.5 percent, Mining and Quarrying 4.4 percent, Information and Communication 12.4% percent as well as the Education 13.2 percent sub-sectors.
World Bank on Ghana’s growth and debt dynamics
The World Bank in its Africa Pulse Report projected that Ghana will end 2022 with an Economic growth of 3.5 percent, instead of the 3.7 percent forecast by government.
The World Bank is projecting that Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio will hit 104.6 percent at the end of 2022, up from 76.6 in 2021.
Impact on End of Year projection
The projection by the IMF could mean that Inflation rate for the month of August which is pegged at 33.9 percent could be slowing down in the coming months.
Inflation Rate for the month of August reached the highest in 21 years.
However, the month on month data showed that values have been declining, despite the year-on-year numbers increasing every month.
The Governor of the Bank of Ghana has argued that the recent hike in Policy Rate to reach 24.5 percent has contributed in slowing down the month on month inflation numbers ending August 2022.