Kenya: Poor Rains Expected in Most of Country, Says Met Director

Most of the country will receive poor rainfall from next week until May, weathermen said yesterday. Only Western Kenya and northern coast will receive slightly enhanced rains, according to their three-month forecast. The report stoked fears of another drought but the Meteorological director Joseph Mukabana said if farmers plant the right crops, the rains will be adequate for them.

This season is the most important in Kenya and rainfall failure could easily lead to food shortage. “The March to May 2012 long rains are likely to exhibit poor distribution, both in time and space, over most parts of the country and more so in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands,” said Dr Mukabana. The director said they have advised Ministry of Special Programmes to be prepared because the region is going through a weak La Nina, which brings dry weather in Kenya. He said the expected rains could also be disrupted at some point before May by tropical cyclones forming over the Madagascar Island.

According to a food security report by Ministry of Agriculture, dry areas will have a food crisis in April if the rains fail because most families recorded poor harvest last year. “The majority of poor and very poor households in the southeast will be in Stressed or Crisis levels of food insecurity,” says the Kenya Food Security Outlook.

Light rains have already begun in Nyanza, Western Kenya and Central Rift Valley. Met said they will be enhanced next week and continue into June this year. For southern parts of Rift Valley, and central highlands including Nairobi, Nyeri, Embu and Meru, the rains will increase next week and cease end of May.

In South Eastern areas like Machakos, Voi and neighbouring areas, the rains will begin in the fourth week of this month and end early May. Dr Mukabana said April will be the peak rain season for all regions. Coast and northeastern Kenya will be the last regions to receive rains end of this month or early April. Northern Kenya will go dry from early May but rains will continue to June in coast. Dr Mukabana said Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Central Kenya, where the rains will be good, should take advantage and maximize crop yields.

He said: “Farmers are advised to work closely with the Ministry of Agriculture on ways of taking advantage of the expected good rainfall. ” Weathermen feel if this happens the country will have enough food because the October – December short rains were generally good. The report shows all the stations in the country except Embu, Machakos and Makindu received more than 100 percent of their seasonal means.