29 May 2011
opinion
Nairobi — Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir seems to have been itching to spoil South Sudan’s party scheduled in two months.
Otherwise, why respond to a possible military indiscretion will a territorial grab?
By all accounts southern troops in Abyei opened fire on a convoy of northern soldiers nine days ago. UN peacekeepers escorted the troops during an apparent withdrawal.
Khartoum charged the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army, SPLA, set an ambush. The UN Mission in Sudan, UNAMIS, described the shoot-out as a “criminal” act.
A visiting Security Council team condemned the incident. South Sudan, independent in July, apologised.
Forgotten is that plausibly post-battle morale afflicted some SPLM soldiers. After all, southerners have twice fought the north since Sudan’s 1956 independence from Anglo-Egyptian colonialism.
The last round of the two civil wars, beginning in 1972, ended with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA.
The international community dragged Bashir, screaming and kicking, to the negotiations. In the two wars, the Abyei’s Ngok Dinka fought alongside southerners.
Their occasional neighbours, the Misseriya, sided with the north. Reasons exist. A few suffice. The northerners are predominantly Muslims and Arabised.
Most southerners are pitch black. Some have embraced Christianity; others retain traditional beliefs. Cultural clashes exist.
Additionally, the north, Misseriya included, treat the south as a “hunting ground” in the broad sense. Significantly, in the context of liberation, the Ngok Dinka resent Abyei’s 1905 colonial annexation to northern administration.
Most sticky, both parties disagree on voters’ qualifications. The south insists on the Ngok Dinka only, saying the Misseriya are itinerant. The north says, “Wait a minute!”
To resolve the boundary issue, Bashir and Salva Kiir Mayardit, vice president and the south’s president–no wonder he wears a big hat–turned to The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration.
The court’s 2009 ruling reduced Abyei’s size, making it more Ngok Dinka, potential secessionists a la the south comes the referendum. Expect Bashir to celebrate that?
Both the CPA and The Hague court left a legal issue hanging. They gave the Messariya grazing rights. Does that mean voting rights? It’s an issue deserving a court ruling, not political bellicosity, and bombardments.
Then comes oil reserves. At independence–pending negotiations if not another war–the south stands to control about 75 per cent of Sudan’s petroleum production. Add a loss of a third of the county and chagrin boils in Khartoum.
Within days of the alleged ambush, Bashir sent troops to seize the Abyei region. Joined by militias, they razed the capital, Abyei, to the ground.
Evidence Bashir called Mayardit to ascertain change of policy remains scarce. His first weapon of domestic politicking would do, a la Darfur. Who is kidding whom?
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Bashir Itching to Spoil South Sudan’s Party