Betting blog: Chelsea’s Tina Turner-style comeback, Champions League final showdown, plus tips

EPL: Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea – Wigan(Getty Images)

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What a week it has been! The world’s most wanted man, no, not Lionel Messi, was caught and killed in Pakistan, Real Madrid managed to finish a game against Barcelona with 11 men and a team managed by Tony Mowbray even kept a clean sheet.

What’s next, Jose Mourinho to nominate Sergio Busquets for a fair play award?

JD on… the Champions League final

Now we know the make up of the Champions League as Manchester United take on Barcelona on May 28. It promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams who have much in common.

Pep Guardiola’s team, as predicted by moi, managed to overcome the challenge of Real Madrid over two legs to book their place in the final. The Red Devils barely had to break sweat to beat Schalke over two matches in the second semi-final which was a bit of a mismatch.

A lot of criticism has been dished out to Die Knappen after being hammered 6-1 but reaching the last four was a marvellous achievement for the club. Against Manchester United their little party came to an end as they were exposed by a superior opponent. You can argue all you want that Inter would have given United a harder game but the holders didn’t show up for their quarter-final and were sent packing.

The bookies have already installed Barcelona as 10/11 (1.90) favourites to win this match over 90 mins and 1/2 (1.50) to lift the trophy outright. Manchester United can be got for a generous 3/1 (4.) to see off the Catalan giants in 90 minutes and 13/8 (2.62) to scoop a fourth European Cup.

As stated in this blog last December, when Barcelona were 13/5 (3.60) to lift the Champions League, they were miles better than anyone in Europe and plenty of punters snapped up that tasty price.

Expecting Barca to win is by no means a banker. Manchester United have the players to trouble them and their defence has been consistent and robust throughout the Champions League campaign. Purists are already purring about the contest which should hopefully deliver more quality football than the Clasico series.

JD on… Chelsea’s comeback

England’s Premier League title race could be settled on Sunday afternoon as champions Chelsea roll into Old Trafford. A win would send the Blues top and be a comeback that Tina Turner would be proud of.

Carlo Ancelotti’s team were a massive 15 points off the pace and even the most devoted Blue wouldn’t have backed them to retain their title back then. You have to give the Italian tactician credit for rallying his troops and giving them the self-belief to go on their current marvellous run which could yield an unlikely title.

In truth, the away form of Manchester United has been patchy all season and it has proved to be their Achilles heel. If Fergie blows a chance for a 19th title he will curse the dropped points against the likes of Fulham and Everton earlier in the campaign. No side has really stamped their authority on this title race which makes Sunday’s showdown all the more spicy.  

Bookmakers make Manchester United as short as 2/9 (1.22) to win the title which is a silly price and has about as much value as yesterday’s newspaper. A win for Chelsea on Sunday will completely change the picture and that 1.22 price won’t last too long.

Man Utd are 11/8 (2.37) to win the match with Chelsea at 2/1 (3.0) to steal the three points in a repeat of last season. The draw is priced at 23/10 (3.30. From a betting perspective it’s not a game I would be touching with a 50 foot pole as there is too much at stake. This is a game to watch, preferably from behind the sofa if you support either side, but if you are going to have a punt the value is with United @ 2.37 given their dominance at Old Trafford this season.

And finally…

Thank you to all who signed up to jdfootballbetting.com. The main season in Europe may be nearing the end game but we will deal in different markets during the summer to earn a crust. The summer is often very profitable as we delve into the Scandinavian and Irish leagues.

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JD’s Tips

Bolton Wanderers to beat Sunderland @ 1.80 (Sportingbet)

Leicester City – Ipswich Town (over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (Sportingbet)

JD is Goal.com’s betting blogger is a professional punter with a stock market background. You can visit his personal site here.

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