Julius Sigei and Billy Muiruri
30 December 2011
An overwhelming majority of Kenyans have a dim outlook of 2012, a new survey shows.
The end of year barometer released on Friday by Ipsos-Synovate found that 62 per cent of Kenyans expect that the economic conditions in 2012 to be worse than 2011.
Only 21 per cent of Kenyans expect the economic conditions to better next year.
“The poor economic conditions experienced in 2011, evidenced by soaring fuel prices and ever increasing prices of basic commodities, have made Kenyans pessimistic about the economic prospects 2012,” said the firm’s managing director Maggie Ireri.
She said the most visible sign of Kenya’s economic challenge is the depreciating Shilling, which reached an all-time low of 107 against the US Dollar in October 2011.
“The ever increasing prices of basic commodities like maize flour, maize, carrots, sugar and rice have hit low income households hardest with food now accounting for a larger share of household expenditure,” Mrs Ireri said.
Despite this pessimistic view, economists project the economy to grow by 5 per cent in 2012.
According to the World Bank Report, this growth rate will be achieved if Kenya succeeds in managing risks and avoids price and currency controls that distort economic activity. The same report indicates that growth will mainly be driven by services, tourism and agriculture.
Basic commodity prices are still on the rise and the high cost of living remains the most pressing problem facing Kenyans today.
A majority of Kenyans are concerned about the high cost of living. Concerns about the high cost of living have soared from 33 per cent in April to 71 per cent in December 2011.
These sentiments are supported by data from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) which indicates that inflation rose to 18.91 per cent in November 2011 from 5.42 per cent in January 2011.
Presidential run-off
According to the KNBS, the increase in inflation was driven by rising cost of food, transport, energy and house rent.
“It is therefore not surprising that majority of Kenyans (67 per cent) are of the opinion that the problem of the high cost of living will worsen in 2012. Only 17 per cent of Kenyans are optimistic that the cost of living will give in next year,” said Mrs Ireri.
On the political front, slightly more than half (56 per cent) of Kenyans expect the political climate to worsen (or heighten) next year.
The latest opinion poll by Synovate shows that a presidential run-off would be necessary to decide Kenya’s fourth president.
The Ipsos-Synovate poll indicates that Prime Minister Raila Odinga has a lead against the other presidential candidates but not enough support to win the first round of elections.
At the same time, political analysts predict that political alliances will be characterised by those seeking to support or stop the Prime Minister Raila’s quest for Presidency.
The survey conducted from December 12 to 19 in all the eight provinces. A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio.
The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.3 per cent.
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