Garowe Online (Garowe)
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
30 December 2011
analysis
After a lull during autumn, when preparatory work proceeded behind the scenes, the serious business of establishing a permanent constitutional order for the territories of post-independence Somalia began in earnest with the holding of the “Somali National Consultative Constitutional Conference” in Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, from December 21-24.
The conference resulted in an agreement among the organized political administrations that are participating in the constitution-making process on guidelines for determining Somalia’s political future. Announced as the “Garowe Principles,” the agreement prolonged the transition to a permanent political order for Somalia, which was supposed to be completed by August 2012, until 2016.
It is not surprising that the “transition” has been deferred yet again. In the first place, it is not a “Somali-owned” and certainly not a Somali-determined process; rather, it is the project of the Western “donor”-powers working through the United Nations Security Council and the United Nations Political Office for Somalia, which attempts to implement the U.N.S.C.’s mandates. The “donor”-powers/U.N. bankrolls whichever political mechanism(s) in Somalia that it chooses to support. At present, where the “donor”-powers/U.N. will put its money is up in the air, because it has decided to draw back from political involvement in Somalia and, as a consequence, is rushing to impose a political solution. The Garowe meeting is a part of that effort, which is encapsulated in the “Roadmap,” which was devised by U.N.P.O.S. to structure the “transition.”
The problem with the Roadmap process is that it did not take into account the deep political divisions in Somalia that could only be overcome through an internal Somali process of working through the divisions on the ground and in discussions. An imposed rush job could not be expected to succeed. The Garowe Principles show that clearly by instituting what Africa Review appropriately called a “new roadmap” that sets in motion a four-year transitional government to replace the current transitional government that the “donor”-powers/U.N. and regional states engineered in 2004. August 2012 is not the beginning of a permanent political order; it is the inception of a new transition.
What does the new transition accomplish? What made the old Roadmap fail? The second question needs to be addressed first, because its answer reveals the fundamental structure of Somali politics; that is, divisions over the form of a permanent Somali state. The division at the Garowe conference that led to deferring the transition is only one of the deep divisions over the nature of the state among Somali groups, although it is an important one and an indicative one. It was sufficient to derail the original Roadmap process.
The Basis of Representation The fundamental issue that surfaced at the Garowe conference was the basis of representation within the structure/form of a future Somali state.
The conference was “convened” by Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.), “hosted” by Puntland, and “facilitated” by U.N.P.O.S. It was attended by the “authorities” that had signed the old Roadmap – the T.F.G., the Transitional Federal Parliament (T.F.P.), Puntland, the semi-autonomous state of Galmudug covering part of the Mudug region south of Puntland, a faction of the AhluSunnaWal-Jama’a (A.S.W.J.) movement from Mogadishu, and U.N.P.O.S.
In advance of the conference, U.N.P.O.S. issued a “Briefing Note on the Constitutional Conference in Garowe and the Roadmap,” which contained its directives for the conference. Calling the conference “another step towards the implementation of the Roadmap,” U.N.P.O.S. said that the conference would discuss and agree on the drafting and adopting process for a permanent constitution to be implemented in August 2012. As it turned out that scenario did not come to pass, because the Somali participants were too divided to carry it through, forcing U.N.P.O.S. to make a desperate attempt to heal the rift, resulting in a new Roadmap – the Garowe Principles.
The conference began on December 21 with a deceptive display of unity by its Somali participants, notably the T.F.G.’s president, Sh. Sharif Sh. Ahmad; its prime minister, Abdiweli Gas; the T.F.P,’s speaker, Sharif Hassan Sh. Adan; and Puntland’s president, AbdirahmanFarole. All of them agreed in their opening statements that the structure/form of a permanent Somali state should be federal. Only Sh. Sharif anticipated the conflict that loomed ahead, when he said: “The debate could be what type of federal system.”
The latent conflict became manifest on December 22 when a “heated debate,” as the Som-Today website reported, erupted over the basis of representation which would be used for a reformed parliament that, according to the Roadmap, would precede the full formation of a state. The battle lines were between Puntland and the other Somali participants, with the former saying that representation should be based on region and district (political basis) and the latter saying that it should be based on clan (social basis), as it is in the present T.F.P.
The debate over the basis of representation was serious; it would determine the balance of power among clans within a constitutional order. Aclosed source privy to the debate reports that the split was a clan-based resistance of the Hawiye and Rahanweyn clan families against the Darod, which dominates Puntland. The other clans, according to the source, calculated that they would not have enough constituencies under the political formula of representation to counter the Darod, so they defended the old system of clan representation that they calculated gave them an advantage.
By the end of the second day, it became clear that the adversaries were unwilling to move from their positions, which meant that the conference would fail and U.N.P.O.S. would lose control of the transition. Desperate to find a way out of the impasse and save the transition, U.N.P.O.S., as reported by Som-Today, floated a compromise in which parliament would function for four years under the present 4.5 clan representation formula, and then would be replaced by a parliament defined by a new permanent constitution. Som-Today reported that the opposing sides rejected the compromise.
On December 23, the conference broke down when the two sides failed to agree on a communiqué that would issue from the conference. That was U.N.P.O.S.’s nightmare. The conference was extended for an extra day. According to another closed source, U.N.P.O.S. used the time to exert pressure on the adversaries to accept U.N.P.O.S.’s compromise.
The pressure worked and on December 24 the participants signed the Garowe Principles, which follow the U.N.P.O.S. compromise plan.
The Garowe principles are not a compromise in the sense of a give-and-take among positions, but a jamming together of positions, in this case by prescribing an initial phase in which clan representation is in force and a succeeding phase in which regional-district representation takes over, presumably on a permanent basis. Puntland gets a promise and its opponents get a lease on life; anything might happen in four years. The old Roadmap gives way to a new Roadmap; that is, a new “transition.”
The first phase of the new “Roadmap” – the transitional phase – is a new parliament that is to begin to function in June 2012 and will be based on the 4.5 clan representation formula. Its members are to be nominated by “recognized traditional elders assisted by qualified civil society members,” or by existing regional administrations, and “in case the prevailing situation does not allow for universal polling, the parliament will be selected on the basis of constituencies” [as is almost certain to be the case]. In essence, the new transitional parliament recreates the old one, with fewer members than at present. There will be no parties, no elections, and no permanent basis of representation.
The second phase – the promise to Puntland – is the establishment of a “bicameral federal legislature,” with the upper house composed of “federal states and regional administrations.” Neither house is to be based on the 4.5 formula: “the new Federal Constitution shall not include any provisions using the 4.5 formula and shall not be amended to abrogate this stipulation in any manner,” and, after the new transitional parliament’s four-year term expires, the permanent parliament “will be elected through universal polling of one person one vote.”
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