Currently, the NPP as a party in opposition is strategizing to win the 2012 elections and form the next Government. The question that arises is what strategy the NPP should adopt in the selection of a running mate in order to maximize the votes it can win in 2012. In other words, does the NPP want to follow tradition or a strategy to win power? More than ever, this is one subject that has attracted so much debate. But to any well-meaning supporter of the NPP, one of the key factors that should receive utmost attention is how the choice will help Nana Addo and the NPP to win the election.
The big question that the flag bearer is confronted with is whether NPP’s tradition of a South/North combination has enough evidence of having the required votes to win elections as compared to the alternate option of partnering a Ga-Dangme for the sole purpose of garnering a lot of votes from the Ga Areas. It will be expedient that in order to answer this question appropriately, a careful analysis of past results be undertaken (see table below).
1) Although in 1996 NPP lost in all 3 northern regions as well as Greater Accra, the latter had 528,484 votes compared to 279,713 votes in Northern, Upper East and Upper West put together.
2) In 2000 and 2004 Greater Accra voted massively to bring President Kufuor and the NPP into power and at the same time demonstrated once again that this region always had more votes than the three northern regions together. However, in 2008 the party lost all of the coastal Greater Accra constituencies of Krowor, Ledzokuku, Dade Kotopon, Korley Klottey, Odododiodoo and Ablekuma South and thus found itself back in opposition. This confirmed that any party that wins Greater Accra especially the Coastal constituencies wins the general elections and vice versa. This is substantiated by the Economist Intelligent Unit report of December 14, 2011 which stated that “Greater Accra is a key region in any presidential poll, given the size of the population.” It cannot be disputed that the percent of NPP votes in the three northern regions show an increasing trend since 1996, but the increases in actual votes can be described as minimal compared to Greater Accra.
3) All leaders of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have demonstrated their complete and entrenched hold of the Northern ethnic groups and the Zongo communities. Ex-president Rawlings won massively in both the 1992 and 1996 general elections among the Northern ethnic groups though he never had a running mate of that descent. Similarly, Prof. Mills selected a non Moslem Northerner and also won in 2008 when the NPP had a seating vice president in the person of HE Alhaji Aliu Mahama and a running mate in the person of Dr Mahamadu Bawumia who were both northerners cum Moslems.
4) The choice of a Ga-Dangme would be historic and unprecedented since no political party has ever given this privilege and honour to them either as a flag bearer or a running mate. Hence this privilege is highly esteemed by the Ga-Dangme citizens who have contributed to the debate on this subject in recent publications and reviews in the electronic media, and would surely reciprocate by voting massively for the Party. It is interesting to note that a sizable number of the Ga-Dangme community have since been agitating for one of their own on any party’s ticket for the automatic votes of Ga-Dangmes.
Though the prevailing despondency on the part of Ghanaians against the Atta Mills led NDC government is very high, care should be taken that supporters of NPP do not think the battle is already won. Any form of complacency must be eschewed. Once again an appeal is made to the flag bearer and the national council members to be guided by past election data and analysis to choose a winnable running mate.
5) An analysis of Table 2 below for only 10 out of 27 constituencies shows that the total number of votes that NPP obtained in any of the years 2000, 2004, and 2008 is more than that of Upper East and Upper West combined and slightly less than that obtained from Northern Region. The sample constituencies used for the analysis are the only ones in Greater Accra with predominantly Ga-Dangme residents. It can therefore be argued that an objective analysis will show that the selection of a Ga-Dangme running mate for the NPP flagbearer can bring in a possible 100,000 votes which will be a loss to the NDC.
Additionally the cost of campaigning for these votes in the Ga-Dangme Electoral Areas is far cheaper than going to some of these far away electoral places. With a Ga-Dangme running mate who speaks the local language fluently campaigning along the coastal Ga Areas, this strategy will help NPP win power in 2012. In summary, all the available past election results data does not support the NPP being in a better position to win 2012 with a running mate from the North versus a Ga-Dangme candidate. The question needs to be asked again. DOES NPP WANT TO WIN POWER OR FOLLOW A TRADITION?. The NPP should seek to win Power for that is all that matters. See more tables here