The Moment (London)
Peterclaver Egbochue
10 December 2011
AGAINST the backdrop of increasing poverty and its associated economic hardship orchestrated by mass unemployment, infrastructure decay, insecurity, rising inflation rate and lately government’s resolve to remove subsidy from petroleum products, eminent Nigerians have warned against possible ‘Arab Spring’ in Nigeria.
More than ever before, the warnings are coming in quick succession and from unusual quarters suggesting that in deed, Nigeria is gradually but steadily threading on a dangerous path.
The revolutionary prophecy as it is now known was handed down last week by President Goodluck Jonathan while speaking in Lokoja, last week
He admitted that the country may witness a revolt against constituted authority in the next four or five years, if jobs are not created to accommodate those leaving schools.
Feelers from across the country reveal that the gale of ‘Arab spring’ may be more imminent than the four to five years projection of President Goodluck Jonathan if nothing is done urgently.
Just as the frenzy raised by the warning was settling, the former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, on Monday December 5, issued another ‘prophesy’ in the same direction of imminent revolt against constituted authority in the country.
He cited Egypt and Libya as examples of countries that had witnessed the Arab spring in the Middle East.
Speaking during a workshop on Economic Diversification and Revenue Generation, organised by the Ogun State Government and the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Commission, the former President noted that although Egypt and Libya economies experienced growth because of their respective resource endowment but that this did not spare them of the people’s ‘discontent’, when it happened.
Obasanjo remarked that there were mass civil protests in the Arab spring, because there was a ‘disconnect’ between ‘economic growth’ and ’employment generation’ for their people.
He advised all tiers of government in Nigeria to pay special attention to agriculture and its subsidiary businesses as a tool for employment generation for the unemployed Nigerians.
In his words, ‘Only when this happened, that the Arab Spring would not rear its head in the country. It doesn’t matter which way you look at it today. People are now talking of Arab spring. And some people will ask, is Egypt not developing? On economic scale, after South Africa, it is Egypt in Africa. Has Libya not got resources?
‘At one time, with a population of about five million, Libya was producing as much oil as Nigeria was producing. But there was still discontent because, in terms of Gross Domestic Products (GDP), it may be growing well but in terms of employment generation, there is disconnect.
‘That is one of the elements that led to Arab spring. There are others but let me take this one that is relevant to our discussion today. If this is the case, agriculture and agricultural business is important’.
The former president also urged all financial institutions, the large-scale farmers, the small and medium scale farmers, researchers, retailers and distributors and governments to get involved in the job of using agric-business and agriculture to create jobs.
He reasoned that this would enhance national security and stability. He regretted that for too long, the nation had been mobilising and sharing revenue from only one source, oil.
Observers say Obasanjo’s statement was an indictment on the self. During his eight years in office did little or nothing to ameliorate the situation from further escalating to what it is now. They cited the closure of some textile factories as well as the Ajaokuta Steel Company which almost closed shops during his tenure.
‘Two presidents issuing the same warning back to back simply portend danger, especially since the men are supposed to fix our problems are saying this, it means the problems have reached breaking point and that we are at the threshold of a revolutionary uprising if something is not done urgently to tackle the menace of youth unemployment’, a source volunteered.
General Yakubu Gowon (rtd) has also added his voice to the serial warnings. Addressing participants at the recently concluded Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) conference, the former head of state opined that the current state of affairs in the country had raised many questions that the leaders must answer now for the sake of peace and stability in the country.
‘We have a responsibility to restore confidence in our diverse people and ensure the prosperity of all the ethnic groups within the context of a united Nigeria, he added.
A member of the National Executive Committee of the ACF, Alhaji Ahmed Al-Ghazali, at the conference also warned northern leaders to prepare for a bloody revolution so long as they chose to allow the teeming population of the youth in the north to continue to roam the streets hopelessly.
In an emotion-laden address, he said: ‘The President, Vice president and governors do what they like with our money and this is wrong. So they have to stop that. So long as we allow our teeming youth to roam the street hopelessly, we must be ready to face a bloody revolution sooner than later.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Government Investigation Panel on the 2011 Election Violence headed by Sheikh Ahmed Lemu cautioned the Federal Government over the current social, economic and security situation in Nigeria, stressing that if nothing was done could escalate to social revolution sooner than later.
While submitting its report to the President a forth night ago, the panel maintained that the general insecurity of life and property in people’s houses and on the highways and kidnappings are fuel to the fire of public frustration and disappointment.
Lemu stated that the true state of affairs could escalate to social revolution if preventive measures are not taken in time.
His words: ‘In fact, the current sporadic demonstrations in educational institutions and by labour unions are all considered to be signals of more serious negative events to come.
The Committee chairman identified the manner in which political office holders have made their respective positions lucrative at the expense of the whole nation as another likely cause of revolution.
He submitted that the remunerations and allowances of the members of the legislature, in particular, are considered by stakeholders who addressed the committee in the course of its duty was outrageous.
‘It has turned politics in Nigeria to a do-or-die affair for which many politicians of all parties are seriously establishing private armies to execute. In that respect, easy access to drugs, serious general poverty at the grassroots level and youth unemployment, in particular, are providing many foot soldiers ready for recruitment for any revolt at the cheapest rate.
Lemu identified the current zoning controversy which started basically as internal political affairs of the ruling party which ultimately changed the nature of the last presidential election into ethno-religious contest in the country, particularly in the Northern States as another delicate factor that could fuel revolt in the country.
The Committee, inaugurated on 11 May, 2011, noted that ‘for all the causes identified by the panel, the declining spirit of God consciousness and of accountability before God, very low moral standard as well as social indiscipline in the Nigerian society are all considered as dangerous signal.
Linus Okoroji, the Director of Security and Logistics, in PRONACO, a pro-democracy group said the former present contributed to the whole problems in the country today and does not have the moral rectitude to issue such warning.
In a telephone interview, Okoroji recalled that Obasanjo increased the prices of petroleum products indiscriminately and mindlessly which forced some SMEs to wind up and relocate to neighbouring countries.
‘The country is on the brink of collapse, there is no doubt about that but it must not come from somebody like him because he contributed to it. He increased the price of Gas which SMEs are using which forced many of them to close up. He wasted billions of naira on energy and yet there is no light today, what is he talking about?’ He queried.
In a recent interview, Chukwuanugo Ejikeme, a Lagos-based lawyer cautioned President Jonathan to stop playing Russian roulette with the wellbeing of Nigerians as they have been pushed to the wall to a breaking point.
He opined that any attempt to withdraw the subsidy on petroleum products, if any, at this point in time would not augur well for the country. He added that revolution may not be far away if the paradox of a rich country with poor citizenry abides.
He maintained that the transformation agenda of the present administration would be meaningless without solid infrastructure, regretting that in spite of the nation’s stupendous wealth, there is little or nothing to cheer in terms of social amenities.
While some observers commend the President for his sincerity in openly admitting the existence of the problem and the need to find timely remedies, his critics submit that he should not stop at merely making observation but should utilise the resources at his disposal to create jobs and address other socio-economic problems facing the country if Nigeria must be saved from the echoes of revolution.
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