Mohammed Abdulrahman
28 November 2011
As the seasons change in Egypt, so does the political climate. The Arab Spring has slowly given way to a freezing cold Arab winter. Tahrir Square in central Cairo, where the former Mubarak regime used to publicly flaunt its power, has become the epicentre of protest against the ruling military council. At least 40 people have recently been killed, and protest leaders claim the army has betrayed Egypt’s revolution.
But the real picture is more complicated. Radio Netherlands Worldwide and Amsterdam’s VU University, working closely with Egyptian political scientists, established an online ‘Vote Compass’ for the elections.
The site helps voters find out which political party most closely reflects their views. Visitors to Vote Compass Egypt were asked how much trust they have in the country’s institutions: the army, the police, the judiciary, the government, political parties, religious leaders, businessmen, the state-run media and the independent press. Their answers show that Egyptians are deeply divided over which institutions should be trusted to bring stability and progress to the country.
Support for security forces
Despite the vehemence of the Tahrir Square protests, there is still a large measure of support for the military. More than 40 percent of those who completed the Vote Compass would like to see the army intervening to restore calm to the country while just over 50 per cent want the military to stay out of politics.
Results also show that half of the respondents actually trust the police. Here we also see a deep divide between those who feel the security forces have lost their legitimacy and those who believe the army and police should be trusted with restoring and maintaining order.
Table 1. Trust in political institutions of Vote Compass users (in percentages)
Institution Trust (%) Distrust (%)
Police 50.4 48.7
Government 47.9 51.2
Judiciary 79.5 18.8
Political parties 59.5 38.2
Businessmen 48.4 47.9
State-run media 38.8 60.0
Private media 62.5 36.7
Military 39.4 50.8
The judiciary is the only institution that has broad legitimacy with almost 80 per cent of the Vote Compass Egypt respondents trusting this institution. Clearly an independent judicial electoral committee is key to the success of and trust in the elections. The presence of judges at all the polling stations is also important to maintain the legitimacy of the vote.
There is a remarkable difference in the degrees of trust between state-run and independent media. Users of Vote Compass Egypt have little faith in the government-controlled press yet more than 60 per cent trust private media. The fact that the transformed media landscape with an increasingly independent character has actually gained some credibility is a positive sign for democracy.
Religious confidence
But while Egyptians are deeply divided over the trustworthiness of political institutions, religious leaders and their charitable institutions generate widespread confidence. This is another signal of the likely success of Islamist parties. Yet this popularity of Islamic religious movements also leads to social tensions.
The large Coptic Christian minority (around 10 per cent of the population) in particular is uneasy with Islamists filling the legitimacy void in Egyptian politics. A few weeks ago, Copts were killed during rioting and some suggested that the military were directly involved in these attacks on the Christian population.
When the large trust in Islamist leaders is translated into control of government of Islamist parties, this may create a new dent in the confidence that Egyptians have in their political institutions.
The deep divisions evident may be re-enforced if political power is transferred into the hands of Islamists who have a different perspective on how the state should be run. A country in which political institutions remain deeply contested and mistrusted can never transform into a stable democracy.
AllAfrica – All the Time